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La "nouvelle économie" au futur antérieur : histoire, théories, géographie

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  • Boyer, Robert

Abstract

La diffusion des technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC) était supposée déboucher sur un régime économique sans précédent marqué par une croissance forte, régulière et non inflationniste. S'ouvrait une ère nouvelle en matière d'organisation des firmes (essor des jeunes pousses, déclin des grandes firmes) et pour les sociétés dans leur ensemble (danger d'un fossé numérique). Quatre approches distinctes mais complémentaires remettent en question ce diagnostic. La microéconomie des rendements croissants et de l'information imparfaite explique l'instabilité des modèles organisationnels de la "nouvelle économie". L'analyse historique de la trajectoire américaine montre que le mode de régulation a changé depuis les années soixante, du fait de la conjonction d'un ensemble de changements structurels qui ne résultent pas du seul impact de l'innovation technique. Les Etats-Unis ne sont pas uniques, les pays sociaux démocrates et certaines économies en rattrapage font mieux que le capitalisme de marché. Ainsi la distinction entre "ancienne" et "nouvelle économie" est condamnée à disparaître rapidement car l'avenir des TIC est de contribuer à la réorganisation de nombreuses activités tertiaires liées par exemple à la santé, l'éducation, des loisirs. L'éclatement de la convention Internet puis la récession américaine de 2000-2001 incitent à la recherche d'un autre régime de croissance d'avenir, sans doute plus anthroponomique qu'informationnel.

Suggested Citation

  • Boyer, Robert, 2001. "La "nouvelle économie" au futur antérieur : histoire, théories, géographie," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0113, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:cepmap:0113
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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