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¿Cuál es la dimensión y en que se gastó la reciente bonanza en Colombia?

Author

Listed:
  • Lucas Marín-Llanes

    ()

  • Jaime Bonet-Morón
  • Gerson J. Pérez-Valbuena

Abstract

En las primeras décadas del siglo XXI, Colombia experimentó una de las bonanzas más importantes de su historia. Este artículo identifica y cuantifica las más recientes del país, y los sectores en los que aumentó el gasto público en el período 2008-2016. Además, contrasta los resultados con un grupo de países suramericanos. Surgen cuatro mensajes: (i) en comparación con sus países vecinos, Colombia ha experimentado menos bonanzas, con una duración promedio similar a la mediana regional; (ii) mientras los otros países tienden a tener un sector económico que origina siempre la bonanza, Colombia tuvo un cambio sectorial al pasar de alimentos (café) a combustibles (hidrocarburos); (iii) el tamaño de la bonanza de hidrocarburos fue cerca de cinco veces la del café, lo que tuvo un impacto significativo en el presupuesto público; y (iv) al comparar el periodo anterior y posterior a la bonanza, se encuentra un cambio de tendencia simultáneo en la inversión pública con aumentos en rubros que, desde un perspectiva teórica, podrían haber tenido un impacto positivo en el desarrollo económico. **** ABSTRACT: Colombia experienced one of the major economic booms in its history during the first two decades of the 21st century. This paper characterizes and quantifies them and identifies the sectors where public expenditures increased over the period 2008-2016. Additionally, it compares these results with a group of South American countries. Four conclusions arise: (i) Colombia experienced fewer booms than its neighbors, although the average duration is similar to the regional median; (ii) while other countries maintain a historic leading sector, in Colombia a sectoral change occurred from food (coffee) to fuels (oil); (iii) income windfall of the oil boom in Colombia was around five times larger than the coffee boom, which significantly increased public budget and spending; and (iv) trend changes in public investment occurred during the recent oil boom in a way that, could have had a positive impact in economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Marín-Llanes & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Gerson J. Pérez-Valbuena, 2018. "¿Cuál es la dimensión y en que se gastó la reciente bonanza en Colombia?," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO SOBRE ECONOMÍA REGIONAL Y URBANA 016808, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ECONOMÍA REGIONAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000102:016808
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bonanzas; recursos naturales; Colombia; booms; natural resources; Colombia;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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