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¿Cuál es la dimensión y en que se gastó la reciente bonanza en Colombia?


  • Lucas Marín-Llanes
  • Jaime Bonet-Morón
  • Gerson J. Pérez-Valbuena


En las primeras décadas del siglo XXI, Colombia experimentó una de las bonanzas más importantes de su historia. Este artículo identifica y cuantifica las más recientes del país, y los sectores en los que aumentó el gasto público en el período 2008-2016. Además, contrasta los resultados con un grupo de países suramericanos. Surgen cuatro mensajes: (i) en comparación con sus países vecinos, Colombia ha experimentado menos bonanzas, con una duración promedio similar a la mediana regional; (ii) mientras los otros países tienden a tener un sector económico que origina siempre la bonanza, Colombia tuvo un cambio sectorial al pasar de alimentos (café) a combustibles (hidrocarburos); (iii) el tamaño de la bonanza de hidrocarburos fue cerca de cinco veces la del café, lo que tuvo un impacto significativo en el presupuesto público; y (iv) al comparar el periodo anterior y posterior a la bonanza, se encuentra un cambio de tendencia simultáneo en la inversión pública con aumentos en rubros que, desde un perspectiva teórica, podrían haber tenido un impacto positivo en el desarrollo económico. **** ABSTRACT: Colombia experienced one of the major economic booms in its history during the first two decades of the 21st century. This paper characterizes and quantifies them and identifies the sectors where public expenditures increased over the period 2008-2016. Additionally, it compares these results with a group of South American countries. Four conclusions arise: (i) Colombia experienced fewer booms than its neighbors, although the average duration is similar to the regional median; (ii) while other countries maintain a historic leading sector, in Colombia a sectoral change occurred from food (coffee) to fuels (oil); (iii) income windfall of the oil boom in Colombia was around five times larger than the coffee boom, which significantly increased public budget and spending; and (iv) trend changes in public investment occurred during the recent oil boom in a way that, could have had a positive impact in economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Marín-Llanes & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Gerson J. Pérez-Valbuena, 2018. "¿Cuál es la dimensión y en que se gastó la reciente bonanza en Colombia?," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 273, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:region:273

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mauricio Olivera & Luis Alberto Zuleta & Tatiana L. Aguilar & Andrés F. Osorio, 2011. "Impacto del sector de servicios petroleros en la economía Colombiana," Cuadernos de Fedesarrollo 009269, Fedesarrollo.
    2. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    3. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996. "The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
    4. Biswas, Basudeb & Ram, Rati, 1986. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 361-372, January.
    5. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Andrés Velasco, 2012. "Macroeconomic Performance During Commodity Price Booms and Busts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 570-599, December.
    6. Jaime Bonet-Morón & Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena, 2017. "Financiamiento y calidad del gasto social en la región Caribe colombiana," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 262, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Cristina Fernández Mejía & Leonardo Villar Gómez, 2014. "Temporary Resource Booms and Manufacturing Output: A Global Perspective," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 161-216, July-Dece.
    8. Usui, Norio, 1997. "Dutch disease and policy adjustments to the oil boom: a comparative study of Indonesia and Mexico," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 151-162, December.
    9. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    10. Ossowski, Rolando & Gonzáles-Castillo, Alberto, 2012. "Manna from Heaven: The Impact of Nonrenewable Resource Revenues on Other Revenues of Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4045, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    12. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Le, Tuan Minh & Raballand, Gael, 2010. "Increasing public expenditure efficiency in oil-rich economies : a proposal," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5287, The World Bank.
    13. Rolando Ossowski & Alberto Gonzáles-Castillo, 2012. "Manna from Heaven: The Impact of Nonrenewable Resource Revenues on Other Revenues of Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 75558, Inter-American Development Bank.
    14. repec:idb:brikps:publication-detail,7101.html?id=54846 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jiménez, Juan Pablo & Tromben, Varinia, 2006. "Política fiscal y bonanza: impacto del aumento de los precios de los productos no renovables en América Latina y el Caribe," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    16. Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Public Expenditure And Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis For Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(5), pages 533-556, September.
    17. Saadet Deger & Ron Smith, 1983. "Military Expenditure and Growth in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(2), pages 335-353, June.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. ¿Cómo fueron los cambios en la inversión pública local con la bonanza petrolera en Colombia?
      by Jaime Bonet in Foco Económico on 2020-03-17 21:55:16

    More about this item


    bonanzas; recursos naturales; Colombia; booms; natural resources; Colombia;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)


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