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Temporary Resource Booms and Manufacturing Output: A Global Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Cristina Fernández Mejía

    (Fedesarrollo)

  • Leonardo Villar Gómez

    (Fedesarrollo)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effect of temporary resource booms on manufacturing industry at a global level, but emphasizing the South-American case. The main conclusions are the following: first, the world is facing a boom of booms since 2002, in which South-America plays a prominent role; second, fuel and minerals booms are more likely to be larger and longer, and to generate more Dutch disease symptoms than capital flows or agricultural products booms, and third, the negative impact over the industry tends to last two and three years after the boom has ended.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Fernández Mejía & Leonardo Villar Gómez, 2014. "Temporary Resource Booms and Manufacturing Output: A Global Perspective," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 161-216, July-Dece.
  • Handle: RePEc:cml:moneta:v:ii:y:2014:i:2:p:161-216
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Spatafora, Nikola*Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Macroeconomic effects of terms-of-trade shocks : the case of oil-exporting countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1410, The World Bank.
    2. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
    3. Cooley, Thomas F. & Ohanian, Lee E., 1991. "The cyclical behavior of prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-60, August.
    4. Bassem M Kamar & Damyana Bakardzhieva & Samy Ben Naceur & Sami Ben Naceur, 2010. "The Impact of Capital and Foreign Exchange Flowson the Competitiveness of Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/154, International Monetary Fund.
    5. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    6. Erten, Bilge & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2013. "Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-30.
    7. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2013. "Capital Flows are Fickle; Anytime, Anywhere," IMF Working Papers 13/183, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Cuddington, John T., 1992. "Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices : A disaggregated look at the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-227, October.
    9. Gustavo Adler & Nicolas E Magud, 2013. "Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms; Saving-Investment Patterns and a New Metric of Income Windfall," IMF Working Papers 13/103, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Kareem Ismail, 2010. "The Structural Manifestation of the ‘Dutch Disease’; The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/103, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucas Marín-Llanes & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Gerson J. Pérez-Valbuena, 2018. "¿Cuál es la dimensión y en que se gastó la reciente bonanza en Colombia?," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO SOBRE ECONOMÍA REGIONAL Y URBANA 016808, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ECONOMÍA REGIONAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    resource booms; deindustrialization; Dutch disease; capital flights;

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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