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The persistent colombian conflict bubnational analysis of the duration of violence

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  • Juan F. Vargas

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Abstract

The growing empirical literature on the analysis of civil war has recently included the study of conflict duration at the cross-country level. This paper presents, for the first time, a within-country analysis of the determinants of violence duration. I focus on the experience of the Colombian armed conflict. While the conflict has been active for about five decades, local violence ebbs and flows and areas experiencing continuous conflict coexist with places that have been able to resile and where violence is mostly absent. I examine a wide range of factors potentially associated with violence duration at the municipal level, including scale variables, geographical conditions, economicand social variables, institutions and state presence, inequality, government intervention, and victimization variables. I characterize a few variables robustly correlated with the persistence of localized conflict, both across speci cations and using diff erent econometric models of duration analysis.

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  • Juan F. Vargas, 2011. "The persistent colombian conflict bubnational analysis of the duration of violence," Documentos de Trabajo 007934, Universidad del Rosario.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000092:007934
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juan F. Vargas, 2009. "Military Empowerment and Civilian Targeting in Civil War," HiCN Working Papers 56, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2007. "Diamonds Are Forever, Wars Are Not: Is Conflict Bad for Private Firms?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1978-1993, December.
    3. Jorge Restrepo & Michael Spagat & Juan Vargas, 2004. "The Dynamics of the Columbian Civil Conflict: A New Dataset," Homo Oeconomicus, Institute of SocioEconomics, vol. 21, pages 396-429.
    4. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    6. Barron, Patrick & Kaiser, Kai & Pradhan, Menno, 2004. "Local conflict in Indonesia : Measuring incidence and identifying patterns," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3384, The World Bank.
    7. Do, Quy-Toan & Iyer, Lakshmi, 2007. "Poverty, social divisions, and conflict in Nepal," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4228, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou & Panayiotis Tzeremes & Nickolaos Tzeremes, 2017. "Defence expenditure and economic growth in Latin American countries: evidence from linear and nonlinear causality tests," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 26(1), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Juan Fernando Henao Duque & Jorge Eliécer Montoya Gallo & Felipe Alberto Velásquez Orozco, 2015. "La lucha por el control territorial en Colombia: Un análisis de la dinámica del conflicto armado," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 81-105, June.
    3. Pena, Paola & Urrego, Joaquin & Villa, Juan M., 2017. "Civil Conflict and Conditional Cash Transfers: Effects on Demobilization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 431-440.
    4. Maria Paula Saffon & Fabio Sánchez, 2019. "Historical grievances and war dynamics: Old land conflicts as a cause of current forced displacements in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 017320, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    5. Paola Pena & Joaquin A. Urrego & Juan M. Villa, 2015. "Civil Conflict and Antipoverty Programmes: Effects on Demobilisation," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 012748, Universidad EAFIT.
    6. Thomas Bassetti & Raul Caruso & Darwin Cortés, 2015. "Behavioral differences in violence: The case of intra-group differences of Paramilitaries and Guerrillas in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 013823, Universidad del Rosario.
    7. Christos Kollias & Suzanna Maria Paleologou & Panayiotis Tzeremes & Nickolaos Tzeremes, 2018. "The demand for military spending in Latin American countries," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Lucas Marín Llanes, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Alternative Development Programs: Evidence From Colombia's Illegal Crop Substitution," Documentos CEDE 018468, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    9. Alvaro J. Riascos & Juan F. Vargas, 2011. "Violence and growth in Colombia: A review of the quantitative literature," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 15-20, July.
    10. Flores Thomas Edward, 2014. "Vertical Inequality, Land Reform, and Insurgency in Colombia," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 5-31, January.

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