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The persistent Colombian conflict: subnational analysis of the duration of violence

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  • Juan F. Vargas

Abstract

Focusing on the Colombian armed conflict, this paper develops for the first time a within-country analysis of violence duration. It examines a wide range of factors potentially associated with violence duration at the municipal level for the period 1988--2004, including geographic factors, economic and social variables, institutional characteristics, victimization variables and government intervention. It individuates the most robust correlates of the persistence of localized conflict, both across specifications and using different econometric models of duration analysis. Results suggest that violence in Colombia is more persistent in places where illegal rents are available. Better quality institutions and a more active military are in turn associated with shorter conflict episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan F. Vargas, 2012. "The persistent Colombian conflict: subnational analysis of the duration of violence," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 203-223, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:203-223 DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.597234
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    1. Juan F. Vargas, 2009. "Military Empowerment and Civilian Targeting in Civil War," HiCN Working Papers 56, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2007. "Diamonds Are Forever, Wars Are Not: Is Conflict Bad for Private Firms?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1978-1993.
    3. Restrepo, Jorge & Spagat, Michael, 2004. "The Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months," CEPR Discussion Papers 4570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 113-132.
    6. Barron, Patrick & Kaiser, Kai & Pradhan, Menno, 2004. "Local conflict in Indonesia : Measuring incidence and identifying patterns," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3384, The World Bank.
    7. Jody Overland & Kenneth Simons & Michael Spagat, 2005. "Political instability and growth in dictatorships," Public Choice, Springer, pages 445-470.
    8. Jorge Restrepo & Michael Spagat & Juan Vargas, 2004. "The Dynamics of the Columbian Civil Conflict: A New Dataset," Homo Oeconomicus, Institute of SocioEconomics, pages 396-429.
    9. Do, Quy-Toan & Iyer, Lakshmi, 2007. "Poverty, social divisions, and conflict in Nepal," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4228, The World Bank.
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    1. repec:eee:wdevel:v:99:y:2017:i:c:p:431-440 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paola Pena & Joaquin A. Urrego & Juan M. Villa, 2015. "Civil Conflict and Antipoverty Programmes: Effects on Demobilisation," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 012748, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.
    3. Juan Fernando Henao Duque & Jorge Eliécer Montoya Gallo & Felipe Alberto Velásquez Orozco, 2015. "La lucha por el control territorial en Colombia: Un análisis de la dinámica del conflicto armado," REVISTA ECOS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 81-105, June.
    4. Bassetti, Thomas & Caruso, Raul & Cortes, Darwin, 2015. "Behavioral Differences in Violence: The Case of Intra-Group Differences of Paramilitaries and Guerrillas in Colombia," MPRA Paper 64943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Flores Thomas Edward, 2014. "Vertical Inequality, Land Reform, and Insurgency in Colombia," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 5-31, January.
    6. Alvaro J. Riascos & Juan F. Vargas, 2011. "Violence and growth in Colombia: A review of the quantitative literature," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, pages 15-20.
    7. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou & Panayiotis Tzeremes & Nickolaos Tzeremes, 2017. "Defence expenditure and economic growth in Latin American countries: evidence from linear and nonlinear causality tests," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), pages 1-25.

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