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Labour Market Flows over the Business Cycle: The Role of the Participation Margin

Author

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  • Kamil Galuscak
  • Jan Solc
  • Pawel Strzelecki

Abstract

We investigate the cyclical properties of labour market flows in the Czech Republic and Poland. We find that the role of flows from and into inactivity in explaining the cyclical properties of unemployment and employment rates is smaller than that of flows between employment and unemployment, but is not negligible. The participation rate is weakly countercyclical in both countries, driven by the countercyclical net flow from inactivity to unemployment. This could be explained by fewer employment opportunities in recessions, so that more inactive individuals go to unemployment than directly to employment. Our results are very similar for the two countries, the only noticeable difference being that flows between employment and inactivity have a bigger impact on the participation and employment rates in Poland than those in the Czech Republic.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamil Galuscak & Jan Solc & Pawel Strzelecki, 2018. "Labour Market Flows over the Business Cycle: The Role of the Participation Margin," Working Papers 2018/17, Czech National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2018/17
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
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    5. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Richard Rogerson & Ayşegül Şahin, 2017. "Gross Worker Flows over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3447-3476, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment; labour market flows; participation; unemployment; vector autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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