IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cnb/wpaper/2018-17.html

Labour Market Flows over the Business Cycle: The Role of the Participation Margin

Author

Listed:
  • Kamil Galuscak
  • Jan Solc
  • Pawel Strzelecki

Abstract

We investigate the cyclical properties of labour market flows in the Czech Republic and Poland. We find that the role of flows from and into inactivity in explaining the cyclical properties of unemployment and employment rates is smaller than that of flows between employment and unemployment, but is not negligible. The participation rate is weakly countercyclical in both countries, driven by the countercyclical net flow from inactivity to unemployment. This could be explained by fewer employment opportunities in recessions, so that more inactive individuals go to unemployment than directly to employment. Our results are very similar for the two countries, the only noticeable difference being that flows between employment and inactivity have a bigger impact on the participation and employment rates in Poland than those in the Czech Republic.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamil Galuscak & Jan Solc & Pawel Strzelecki, 2018. "Labour Market Flows over the Business Cycle: The Role of the Participation Margin," Working Papers 2018/17, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2018/17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2018_17.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016057.
    2. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    3. Daouli, Joan & Demoussis, Michael & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas & Lambropoulou, Nikolitsa, 2015. "The ins and outs of Greek unemployment in the Great Depression," MPRA Paper 66299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sorm, Vit & Terrell, Katherine, 2000. "Sectoral Restructuring and Labor Mobility: A Comparative Look at the Czech Republic," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 431-455, September.
    5. Paweł Strawiński, 2009. "Ins and Outs of Polish Unemployment," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 1(3), pages 243-259, November.
    6. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107674165.
    7. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-690, September.
    8. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Richard Rogerson & Ayşegül Şahin, 2017. "Gross Worker Flows over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3447-3476, November.
    9. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016064.
    10. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-283, June.
    11. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, December.
    12. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    13. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107627314.
    14. Robert Dixon & G. C. Lim & Jan C. van Ours, 2015. "The effect of shocks to labour market flows on unemployment and participation rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(24), pages 2523-2539, May.
    15. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016040.
    16. Peter A. Diamond, 1982. "Wage Determination and Efficiency in Search Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(2), pages 217-227.
    17. Mortensen, Dale T, 1982. "Property Rights and Efficiency in Mating, Racing, and Related Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 968-979, December.
    18. Sara Rica & Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz, 2017. "Gender Differentials in Unemployment Ins and Outs during the Great Recession in Spain," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 67-99, March.
    19. Maciej Bukowski & Piotr Lewandowski & Sonia Buchholtz & Lukasz Skrok & Jan Gaska & Horacy Debowski, 2010. "Employment in Poland 2009. Entrepreneurship for work," Books and Reports published by IBS, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych, number zwp2009 edited by Maciej Bukowski, january.
    20. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107638105.
    21. Vladislav Flek & Martina Mysíková, 2015. "Uneployment Dynamics in Central Europe: A Labour Flow Approach," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(1), pages 73-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Richard Rogerson & Aysegul Sahin, 2020. "Gross Worker Flows and Fluctuations in the Aggregate Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 205-226, August.
    2. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    3. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    4. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag & Ruhl, Kim J., 2021. "Trade adjustment dynamics and the welfare gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Stephen Byrne & Martin D. O’Brien, 2017. "Understanding Irish Labour Force Participation," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(1), pages 27-60.
    6. Antoine Devulder, 2014. "Heterogeneity, Unemployment Benefits and Voluntary Labor Force Participation," Working papers 493, Banque de France.
    7. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Prasad, Eswar S., 2025. "Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    8. Kusterer, David & Bolton, Gary & Mans, Johannes, 2016. "Inflated Reputations Uncertainty, Leniency & Moral Wiggle Room in Trader Feedback Systems," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145794, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Wen Xu, 2016. "Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Stochastic Volatility Using Particle Filters," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-13, October.
    10. Özgür Orhangazi & A. Erinç Yeldan, 2021. "The Re‐making of the Turkish Crisis," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 52(3), pages 460-503, May.
    11. Alejandro Castañeda & Cesar Martinelli, 2015. "Political Economics of Broadcast Media," Working Papers 1055, George Mason University, Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science.
    12. repec:bge:wpaper:1047 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ramanarayanan, Ananth, 2017. "Imported inputs, irreversibility, and international trade dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-18.
    14. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Marcin Zamojski, 2015. "Generalized Autoregressive Method of Moments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-138/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 06 Jul 2018.
    15. Jakob Palek, 2015. "The Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Mix in a Financially Heterogeneous Monetary Union," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201506, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    16. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "Small open economies in the vast oceanof global high finance," Economics wp73, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    17. Loïc Berger & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2020. "Risk, Ambiguity, And The Value Of Diversification," Working Papers hal-02910906, HAL.
    18. Diederik Aerts & Emmanuel Haven & Sandro Sozzo, 2018. "A proposal to extend expected utility in a quantum probabilistic framework," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(4), pages 1079-1109, June.
    19. Guriev, Sergei & Treisman, Daniel, 2020. "A theory of informational autocracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    20. Makoto Shimoji, 2016. "Rationalizable Persuasion," Discussion Papers 16/08, Department of Economics, University of York.
    21. Drerup, Tilman & Enke, Benjamin & von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin, 2014. "Measurement Error in Subjective Expectation and the Empirical Content of Economic Models," MEA discussion paper series 201414, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2018/17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tomas Karhanek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cnbgvcz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.