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Sequential Estimation of Shape Parameters in Multivariate Dynamic Models

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Sequential maximum likelihood and GMM estimators of distributional parameters obtained from the standardised innovations of multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models evaluated at Gaussian PML estimators preserve the consistency of mean and variance parameters while allowing for realistic distributions. We assess the efficiency of those estimators, and obtain moment conditions leading to sequential estimators as efficient as their joint maximum likelihood counterparts. We also obtain standard errors for the quantiles required in VaR and CoVaR calculations, and analyse the effects on these measures of distributional misspecification. Finally, we illustrate the small sample performance of these procedures through Monte Carlo simulations.

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  • Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Sequential Estimation of Shape Parameters in Multivariate Dynamic Models," Working Papers wp2012_1201, CEMFI.
  • Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2012_1201
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Mencía & Enrique Sentana, 2018. "Volatility-Related Exchange Traded Assets: An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 599-614, October.
    2. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2019. "Consistent non-Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 321-358.
    3. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2021. "Specification tests for non‐Gaussian maximum likelihood estimators," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 683-742, July.
    4. Christian Bontemps, 2019. "Moment-Based Tests under Parameter Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 146-159, March.
    5. Bontemps, Christian, 2013. "Moment-Based Tests for Discrete Distributions," IDEI Working Papers 772, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Oct 2014.
    6. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2019. "Dynamic specification tests for dynamic factor models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 325-346, April.
    7. Bontemps, Christian, 2014. "Simple moment-based tests for value-at-risk models and discrete distribution," TSE Working Papers 14-535, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Sentana, Enrique, 2018. "Volatility, diversification and contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 12824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Tests for Serial Dependence in Static, Non-Gaussian Factor Models," Working Papers wp2012_1211, CEMFI.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elliptical distributions; Efficient estimation; Systemic risk; Value at risk.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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