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The Evolution of the US Family Income-Schooling Relationship and Educational Selectivity

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  • Christian Belzil
  • Jörgen Hansen

Abstract

We estimate a dynamic model of schooling on two cohorts of the NLSY and find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the effects of real (as opposed to relative) family income on education have practically vanished between the early 1980’s and the early 2000’s. After conditioning on a cognitive ability measure (AFQT), family background variables and unobserved heterogeneity (allowed to be correlated with observed characteristics), income effects vary substantially with age and have lost between 30% and 80% of their importance on age-specific grade progression probabilities. After conditioning on observed and unobserved characteristics, a $300,000 di erential in family income generated more than 2 years of education in the early 1980’s, but only one year in the early 2000’s. Put differently, a $70,000 differential raised college participation by 10 percentage points in the early 1980’s. In the early 2000’s, a $330,000 income differential had the same impact. The effects of AFQT scores have lost about 50% of their magnitude but did not vanish. Over the same period, the relative importance of unobserved heterogeneity has expanded significantly, thereby pointing toward the emergence of a new form of educational selectivity reserving an increasing role to noncognitive abilities and/or preferences and a lesser role to cognitive ability and family income.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Belzil & Jörgen Hansen, 2020. "The Evolution of the US Family Income-Schooling Relationship and Educational Selectivity," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-35, CIRANO.
  • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2020s-35
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    5. Christian Belzil & Jörgen Hansen & Xingfei Liu, 2022. "The Evolution of Inequality in Education Trajectories and Graduation Outcomes in the US," Working Papers 2022-12, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    6. Hansen, Jörgen & Davalloo, Golnaz, 2023. "Persistent Marijuana Use: Evidence from the NLSY," IZA Discussion Papers 16446, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inequality; Education; Family Income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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