IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jhucap/doi10.1086-660123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Changes in Postsecondary Choices by Ability and Income: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth

Author

Listed:
  • Michael F. Lovenheim
  • C. Lockwood Reynolds

Abstract

We characterize changes over time in the choices high school graduates make concerning 2-year attendance, 4-year attendance, and college nonattendance across the joint income and ability distribution. We find that college nonattendance decreased substantially between cohorts for both men and women and that these declines were larger for higher-ability students. On the 2-year/4-year margin, there is evidence of growing ability constraints among women. Furthermore, income has become more important among higher-ability men, and increases in 2-year attendance among high-ability but low-income men come at the expense of 4-year college enrollment. State-level college costs explain little of the changes we document.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael F. Lovenheim & C. Lockwood Reynolds, 2011. "Changes in Postsecondary Choices by Ability and Income: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 70-109.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:doi:10.1086/660123
    DOI: 10.1086/660123
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/660123
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/660123
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/660123?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terry Long, B.Bridget, 2004. "How have college decisions changed over time? An application of the conditional logistic choice model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 271-296.
    2. Michael F. Lovenheim & C. Lockwood Reynolds, 2013. "The Effect of Housing Wealth on College Choice: Evidence from the Housing Boom," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(1), pages 1-35.
    3. Katz, Lawrence F. & Autor, David H., 1999. "Changes in the wage structure and earnings inequality," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1463-1555, Elsevier.
    4. Brian A. Jacob, 2002. "Where the boys aren't: Non-cognitive skills, returns to school and the gender gap in higher education," NBER Working Papers 8964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Philippe Belley & Lance Lochner, 2007. "The Changing Role of Family Income and Ability in Determining Educational Achievement," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 37-89.
    6. James J. Heckman & Jora Stixrud & Sergio Urzua, 2006. "The Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Abilities on Labor Market Outcomes and Social Behavior," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 411-482, July.
    7. Kane, Thomas J & Rouse, Cecilia Elena, 1995. "Labor-Market Returns to Two- and Four-Year College," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 600-614, June.
    8. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz & Ilyana Kuziemko, 2006. "The Homecoming of American College Women: The Reversal of the College Gender Gap," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 133-156, Fall.
    9. Ashenfelter, Orley & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Estimates of the Economic Returns to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1157-1173, December.
    10. Rouse, Cecilia Elena, 1995. "Democratization or Diversion? The Effect of Community Colleges on Educational Attainment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 217-224, April.
    11. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of American Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 262-333, April.
    12. John Bound & Michael F. Lovenheim & Sarah Turner, 2010. "Why Have College Completion Rates Declined? An Analysis of Changing Student Preparation and Collegiate Resources," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 129-157, July.
    13. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2003. "Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–1998," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 1-41.
    14. Lockwood Reynolds, C., 2012. "Where to attend? Estimating the effects of beginning college at a two-year institution," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 345-362.
    15. O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Labor Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    16. Eric P. Bettinger & Bridget Terry Long & Philip Oreopoulos & Lisa Sanbonmatsu, 2009. "The Role of Simplification and Information in College Decisions: Results from the H&R Block FAFSA Experiment," NBER Working Papers 15361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts," NBER Working Papers 6385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Keueger, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lance Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2012. "Credit Constraints in Education," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 225-256, July.
    2. Nicholas W Papageorge & Kevin Thom, 2020. "Genes, Education, and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1351-1399.
    3. Johnson, Eric & Reynolds, C. Lockwood, 2013. "The effect of household hospitalizations on the educational attainment of youth," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 165-182.
    4. Robert B. Archibald & David H. Feldman & Peter McHenry, 2015. "A Quality-Preserving Increase in Four-Year College Attendance: Evidence from NLS-72 and ELS:2002," Working Papers 147, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    5. Barnette Justin & Reynolds C. Lockwood & Odongo Kennedy, 2021. "Changes Over Time in the Cost of Job Loss for Young Men and Women," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 335-378, January.
    6. Christian Belzil & Jörgen Hansen, 2020. "The evolution of the US family income–schooling relationship and educational selectivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 841-859, November.
    7. Andrews, Rodney & Li, Jing & Lovenheim, Michael F., 2014. "Heterogeneous paths through college: Detailed patterns and relationships with graduation and earnings," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 93-108.
    8. Emanuela Ghignoni, 2015. "Family background and university dropouts during the crisis: the case of Italy," Working Papers in Public Economics 169, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    9. Robert B. Archibald & David H. Feldman & Peter McHenry, 2015. "A Quality-Preserving Increase in Four-Year College Attendance," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(3), pages 265-297.
    10. Steven J. Haider & Kathleen McGarry, 2018. "Postsecondary Schooling and Parental Resources: Evidence from the PSID and HRS," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 13(1), pages 72-96, Winter.
    11. Christian Belzil & Jörgen Hansen & Xingfei Liu, 2022. "The Evolution of Inequality in Education Trajectories and Graduation Outcomes in the US," Working Papers 2022-12, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    12. Ben Backes & Harry Holzer & Erin Velez, 2015. "Is it worth it? Postsecondary education and labor market outcomes for the disadvantaged," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, December.
    13. Benjamin T. Skinner, 2019. "Choosing College in the 2000s: An Updated Analysis Using the Conditional Logistic Choice Model," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 60(2), pages 153-183, March.
    14. Tobias Meyer & Stephan L. Thomsen, 2016. "How Important Is Secondary School Duration for Postsecondary Education Decisions? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(1), pages 67-108.
    15. Harris, Jorgen, 2022. "Do wages fall when women enter an occupation?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Liu, Vivian Y.T. & Belfield, Clive R. & Trimble, Madeline J., 2015. "The medium-term labor market returns to community college awards: Evidence from North Carolina," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 42-55.
    17. Lovenheim, Michael F. & Owens, Emily G., 2014. "Does federal financial aid affect college enrollment? Evidence from drug offenders and the Higher Education Act of 1998," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-13.
    18. Gonzalo Castex & Evgenia Kogan Dechter, 2014. "The Changing Roles of Education and Ability in Wage Determination," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(4), pages 685-710.
    19. Michael F. Lovenheim & C. Lockwood Reynolds, 2013. "The Effect of Housing Wealth on College Choice: Evidence from the Housing Boom," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(1), pages 1-35.
    20. Lockwood Reynolds, C., 2012. "Where to attend? Estimating the effects of beginning college at a two-year institution," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 345-362.
    21. Lutz Hendricks & Christopher Herrington & Todd Schoellman, 2021. "College Quality and Attendance Patterns: A Long-Run View," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 184-215, January.
    22. Bruce, Donald J. & Carruthers, Celeste K., 2014. "Jackpot? The impact of lottery scholarships on enrollment in Tennessee," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 30-44.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johnson, Eric & Reynolds, C. Lockwood, 2013. "The effect of household hospitalizations on the educational attainment of youth," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 165-182.
    2. Leslie S. Stratton & Nabanita Datta Gupta & David Reimer & Anders Holm, 2017. "Modeling Enrollment in and Completion of Vocational Education: The Role of Cognitive and Non-cognitive Skills by Program Type," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20172, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    3. Rodney J. Andrews & Jing Li & Michael F. Lovenheim, 2016. "Quantile Treatment Effects of College Quality on Earnings," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(1), pages 200-238.
    4. Michael F. Lovenheim & C. Lockwood Reynolds, 2013. "The Effect of Housing Wealth on College Choice: Evidence from the Housing Boom," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(1), pages 1-35.
    5. Angel de la Fuente & Antonio Ciccone, 2003. "Human capital in a global and knowledge-based economy," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 562.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    6. Christian Belzil & Jörgen Hansen, 2020. "The evolution of the US family income–schooling relationship and educational selectivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 841-859, November.
    7. James J. Heckman & Lance J. Lochner & Petra E. Todd, 2003. "Fifty Years of Mincer Earnings Regressions," NBER Working Papers 9732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Steven J. Haider & Kathleen McGarry, 2018. "Postsecondary Schooling and Parental Resources: Evidence from the PSID and HRS," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 13(1), pages 72-96, Winter.
    9. Hotz, V. Joseph & Wiemers, Emily & Rasmussen, Joshua & Koegel, Kate Maxwell, 2018. "The Role of Parental Wealth and Income in Financing Children's College Attendance and Its Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 11842, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Peter Arcidiacono & Michael Lovenheim, 2016. "Affirmative Action and the Quality-Fit Trade-Off," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 3-51, March.
    11. Tali Regev, 2007. "Imperfect information, self-selection and the market for higher education," Working Paper Series 2007-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Chuan, Amanda & Zhang, Weilong, 2023. "Non-college Occupations, Workplace Routinization, and the Gender Gap in College Enrollment," IZA Discussion Papers 16089, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Thomas O. BRODATY & Robert J. GARY-BOBO & Ana PRIETO, 2009. "Does Speed Signal Ability , A Test of Spence's Theory," Working Papers 2009-02, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    14. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2013. "Liberty for More: Finance and Educational Opportunities," NBER Working Papers 19380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Chuan, A. & Zhang, W., 2021. "Non-College Occupations, Workplace Routinization, and the Gender Gap in College Enrollment," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2177, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Ge, Suqin, 2013. "Estimating the returns to schooling: Implications from a dynamic discrete choice model," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 92-105.
    17. Stratton Leslie S. & Datta Gupta Nabanita & Reimer David & Holm Anders, 2018. "Modeling Completion of Vocational Education: The Role of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills by Program Type," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-17, October.
    18. Seth D. Zimmerman, 2014. "The Returns to College Admission for Academically Marginal Students," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(4), pages 711-754.
    19. Lance J. Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2011. "The Nature of Credit Constraints and Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2487-2529, October.
    20. Helena Skyt Nielsen & Torben Sørensen & Christopher Taber, 2010. "Estimating the Effect of Student Aid on College Enrollment: Evidence from a Government Grant Policy Reform," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 185-215, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:doi:10.1086/660123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JHC .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.