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Welfare Cuts and Crime: Evidence from the New Poor Law

Author

Listed:
  • Melander, Eric

    (University of Namur and CAGE)

  • Miotto, Martina

    (CERGE-EI and CAGE)

Abstract

The New Poor Law reform of 1834 induced dramatic and heterogeneous reductions in welfare spending across English and Welsh counties. Using the reform in a difference-in-differences instrumental variables strategy, we document a robust negative relationship between the generosity of welfare provision and criminal activity. Results are driven by non-violent property crimes and are stronger during months of seasonal agricultural unemployment, indicating that a combination of welfare cuts and precarious work opportunities lowered the opportunity cost of crime for economically vulnerable individuals. We use data on county police forces and individual-level criminal records to rule out alternative mechanisms related to changes in policing and sentencing.

Suggested Citation

  • Melander, Eric & Miotto, Martina, 2021. "Welfare Cuts and Crime: Evidence from the New Poor Law," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 548, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:548
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    welfare spending; austerity; crime; poor laws JEL Classification: H53; I38; K42; N33;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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