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Should the Randomistas (Continue to) Rule?

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  • Martin Ravallion

    (Georgetown University)

Abstract

The rising popularity of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in development applications has come with continuing debates on the pros and cons of this approach. The paper revisits the issues. While RCTs have a place in the toolkit for impact evaluation, an unconditional preference for RCTs as the “gold standard” is questionable. The statistical case is unclear on a priori grounds; a stronger ethical defense is often called for; and there is a risk of distorting the evidence-base for informing policymaking. Going forward, pressing knowledge gaps should drive the questions asked and how they are answered, not the methodological preferences of some researchers. The gold standard is the best method for the question at hand.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Ravallion, 2018. "Should the Randomistas (Continue to) Rule?," Working Papers 492, Center for Global Development, revised 17 Jan 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:492
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stéphane J. Baele, 2013. "The ethics of New Development Economics: is the Experimental Approach to Development Economics morally wrong?," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 7(1), November.
    2. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2009. "The Experimental Approach to Development Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 151-178, May.
    3. Arthur Alik‐Lagrange & Martin Ravallion, 2019. "Estimating within‐cluster spillover effects using a cluster randomization with application to knowledge diffusion in rural India," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 110-128, January.
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    2. Hanushek, Eric A., 2021. "Addressing cross-national generalizability in educational impact evaluation," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Simon Feeny & Gill Westhorp & Emma Williams, 2023. "Understanding sustainable outcomes in international development: Towards a realist evaluation framework," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 21-42, January.
    4. Carmen Camacho & Hannes Tepper, 2025. "Do this or do that? A model to prioritize reforms," PSE Working Papers halshs-04005785, HAL.
    5. Fatoumata Nankoto Cissé, 2022. "How impact evaluation methods influence the outcomes of development projects? Evidence from a meta-analysis on decentralized solar nano projects," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 22008, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    6. Brodeur, Abel & Cook, Nikolai M. & Hartley, Jonathan S. & Heyes, Anthony, 2022. "Do Pre-Registration and Pre-analysis Plans Reduce p-Hacking and Publication Bias?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1147, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Soyoung Kim & Yuki Higuchi & Kei Kajisa & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2024. "Infrastructure and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Satellite, Administrative, and Multi-Generation Household Data in a Developing Country," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1237, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
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    10. Abel Brodeur & Nikolai M. Cook & Jonathan S. Hartley & Anthony Heyes, 2024. "Do Preregistration and Preanalysis Plans Reduce p-Hacking and Publication Bias? Evidence from 15,992 Test Statistics and Suggestions for Improvement," Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 527-561.
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    13. Juan Andrés Cabral & Florencia Iara Pucci, 2020. "¿Cuál es el alcance de la revolución de la credibilidad?," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4318, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    14. Fuchs, Lisa Elena & Orero, Levi & Apondi, Victoria Atieno & Kipkorir, Lang'at, 2021. "How to stop wasting money in international development: Using a structured group selection approach to counter procedural inefficiency," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
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    16. Fatoumata Nankoto Cissé, 2022. "How impact evaluation methods influence the outcomes of development projects? Evidence from a meta-analysis on decentralized solar nano projects," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03623394, HAL.
    17. Carmen Camacho & Hannes Tepper, 2025. "Do this or do that? A model to prioritize reforms," Working Papers halshs-04005785, HAL.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • O22 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Project Analysis

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