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Analyzing Systemic Risk in the Chinese Banking System

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  • Qiubin Huang
  • Jakob de Haan
  • Bert Scholtens
  • Jakob de Haan

Abstract

We examine systemic risk in the Chinese banking system by estimating the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the marginal expected shortfall (MES), the systemic impact index (SII) and the vulnerability index (VI) for 16 listed banks in China. Although these measures show different patterns, our results suggest that systemic risk in the Chinese banking system decreased after the financial crisis, but started rising in 2014. Compared to the banking systems of Korea and the US, we find that Chinese banks are at greater risk according to the CoVaR, the SII and the VI approaches, but have the lowest MES.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiubin Huang & Jakob de Haan & Bert Scholtens & Jakob de Haan, 2015. "Analyzing Systemic Risk in the Chinese Banking System," CESifo Working Paper Series 5513, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5513
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    3. Baumöhl, Eduard & Bouri, Elie & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Výrost, Tomáš, 2020. "Increasing systemic risk during the Covid-19 pandemic: A cross-quantilogram analysis of the banking sector," EconStor Preprints 222580, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Baumöhl, Eduard & Bouri, Elie & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Výrost, Tomáš, 2022. "Measuring systemic risk in the global banking sector: A cross-quantilogram network approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Zhang, Xingmin & Fu, Qiang & Lu, Liping & Wang, Qingyu & Zhang, Shuai, 2021. "Bank liquidity creation, network contagion and systemic risk: Evidence from Chinese listed banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    6. Wang, Gang-Jin & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Lin, Min & Xie, Chi & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2018. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk of China's financial institutions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-18.
    7. Nguyen, Hoai Thi Thanh & Tram, Huong Thi Xuan & Nguyen, Linh Thi Thuy, 2023. "Interest rates and systemic risk:Evidence from the Vietnamese economy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    8. Omid Farkhondeh Rouz & Hossein Sohrabi Vafa & Arash Sioofy Khoojine & Sajjad Pashay Amiri, 2024. "Interconnectedness of systemic risk in the Chinese economy: the Granger causality and CISS indicator approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(2), pages 1-24, May.
    9. Hirofumi Fukuyama & Yong Tan, 2022. "Deconstructing three‐stage overall efficiency into input, output and stability efficiency components with consideration of market power and loan loss provision: An application to Chinese banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 953-974, January.
    10. Beylem Çelik & Gökhan Özer & Abdullah Kürşat Merter, 2023. "The Effect of Ownership Structure on Financial Reporting Timeliness: An Implementation on Borsa Istanbul," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, November.
    11. Huang, qhuang, 2020. "Executive compensation and risk-taking of Chinese banks," MPRA Paper 100377, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Apr 2020.
    12. Das, Sanjiv R. & Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar, 2022. "Banking networks, systemic risk, and the credit cycle in emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Yufei Cao, 2021. "Measuring systemic risk and dependence structure between real estates and banking sectors in China using a CoVaR‐copula method," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5930-5947, October.
    14. Alexey Vasilenko, 2018. "Systemic Risk and Financial Fragility in the Chinese Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model Approach," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps30, Bank of Russia.
    15. Zhiwei Zhang & Dayong Zhang & Fei Wu & Qiang Ji, 2021. "Systemic risk in the Chinese financial system: A copula‐based network approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2044-2063, April.
    16. Huang, Qiubin, 2020. "Ownership concentration and bank profitability in China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    17. Pham, Thach N. & Powell, Robert & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Systemically important banks in Asian emerging markets: Evidence from four systemic risk measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    18. Marwa Elnahass & Mohamed Marie & Mohammed Elgammal, 2022. "Terrorist attacks and bank financial stability: evidence from MENA economies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 383-427, July.
    19. Elisabeth Paulet & Hareesh Mavoori, 2019. "Globalization, regulation and profitability of banks: a comparative analysis of Europe, United States, India and China," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 16(2), pages 127-170, December.
    20. Haizhen Yang & Xiangjuan Cheng & Qiubin Huang & Qiao Wang, 2019. "Systemic Risk in the Chinese Stock Market Under Different Regimes: A Sector-Level Perspective," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(6), pages 665-679, June.
    21. Bellavite Pellegrini, Carlo & Cincinelli, Peter & Meoli, Michele & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "The contribution of (shadow) banks and real estate to systemic risk in China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    22. Han Miao, 2017. "Twin Peaks Regulation After the Global Financial Crisis: A Reform Model for China?," Asian Journal of Law and Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-30, December.
    23. Tonmoy Choudhury & Simone Scagnelli & Jaime Yong & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2021. "Non-Traditional Systemic Risk Contagion within the Chinese Banking Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-16, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic risk; Chinese banking system; CoVaR; capital shortfall;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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