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Carbon Content of Electricity Futures in Phase II of the EU ETS

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  • Harrison Fell
  • Beat Hintermann
  • Herman R. J. Vollebergh

Abstract

We estimate the relationship between electricity, fuel and carbon prices in Germany, France, the Netherlands, the Nord Pool market and Spain, using one-year futures for base and peak load prices for the years 2009-2012, corresponding to physical settlement during the second market phase of the EU ETS. We employ a series of estimation methods that allow for an increasing interaction between electricity and input prices on the one hand, and between electricity markets on the other. The results vary by country due to different generation portfolios. Overall, we find that (a) carbon costs are passed through fully in most countries, and perhaps even by more than 100%; (b) under some model specifications, cost pass-through is similar during peak and during base load for France, Germany and the Netherlands; and (c) the results are sensitive to the degree of cross-commodity and cross-market interaction allowed. We further find that coal prices are negatively and gas prices are positively associated with allowance prices, although the latter effect is not statistically significant in all specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Harrison Fell & Beat Hintermann & Herman R. J. Vollebergh, 2013. "Carbon Content of Electricity Futures in Phase II of the EU ETS," CESifo Working Paper Series 4367, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4367
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    Cited by:

    1. Herman R. J. Vollebergh & Eric Drissen, 2014. "Unconventional Gas and the European Union: Prospects and Challenges for Competitiveness," CESifo Working Paper Series 5035, CESifo.
    2. Guo, Bowei & Castagneto Gissey, Giorgio, 2021. "Cost pass-through in the British wholesale electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Bai, Yiyi & Okullo, Samuel J., 2023. "Drivers and pass-through of the EU ETS price: Evidence from the power sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim & Liebensteiner, Mario, 2021. "Effectiveness of climate policies: Carbon pricing vs. subsidizing renewables," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Nachtigall, Daniel & Venmans, Frank, 2023. "The joint impact of the European Union emissions trading system on carbon emissions and economic performance," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Yin Chu & J. Scott Holladay & Jacob LaRiviere, 2017. "Opportunity Cost Pass-through from Fossil Fuel Market Prices to Procurement Costs of the U.S. Power Producers," Working Papers 2017-02, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics.
    7. Beat Hintermann & Maja Žarković & Corrado Di Maria & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2020. "The Effect of Climate Policy on Productivity and Cost Pass-Through in the German Manufacturing Sector," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_249, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    8. Hintermann, Beat & Ludwig, Markus, 2023. "Home country bias in international emissions trading: Evidence from the EU ETS," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    10. Wang, Juan & Li, Jing & Zhang, Qingjun, 2021. "Does carbon efficiency improve financial performance? Evidence from Chinese firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Meleo, Linda, 2014. "On the determinants of industrial competitiveness: The European Union emission trading scheme and the Italian paper industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 535-546.
    12. Benoît Chèze, Julien Chevallier, Nicolas Berghmans, and Emilie Alberola, 2020. "On the CO2 Emissions Determinants During the EU ETS Phases I and II: A Plant-level Analysis Merging the EUTL and Platts Power Data," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 153-184.
    13. Beat Hintermann, 2016. "Pass-Through of CO2 Emission Costs to Hourly Electricity Prices in Germany," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(4), pages 857-891.
    14. Castagneto-Gissey, Giorgio, 2014. "How competitive are EU electricity markets? An assessment of ETS Phase II," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 278-297.
    15. Wen, Fenghua & Wu, Nan & Gong, Xu, 2020. "China's carbon emissions trading and stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Jean-Philippe Nicolaï & Jorge Zamorano, 2018. "Windfall Profits Under Pollution Permits and Output-Based Allocation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(4), pages 661-691, April.
    17. Anderson, Brilé & Bernauer, Thomas, 2016. "How much carbon offsetting and where? Implications of efficiency, effectiveness, and ethicality considerations for public opinion formation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 387-395.
    18. Bowei Guo & Giorgio Castagneto Gissey, 2019. "Cost Pass-through in the British Wholesale Electricity Market: Implications of Brexit and the ETS reform," Working Papers EPRG1937, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    19. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2019. "What happens to the relationship between EU allowances prices and stock market indices in Europe?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 13-24.
    20. Linn, Joshua & Muehlenbachs, Lucija, 2018. "The heterogeneous impacts of low natural gas prices on consumers and the environment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-28.
    21. Beat Hintermann, 2017. "Market Power in Emission Permit Markets: Theory and Evidence from the EU ETS," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(1), pages 89-112, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cost pass-through; electricity markets; EU ETS; cointegration; carbon content; renewables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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