Carbon Content of Electricity Futures in Phase II of the EU ETS
We estimate the relationship between electricity, fuel and carbon prices in Germany, France, the Netherlands, the Nord Pool market and Spain, using one-year futures for base and peak load prices for the years 2009-2012, corresponding to physical settlement during the second market phase of the EU ETS. We employ a series of estimation methods that allow for an increasing interaction between electricity and input prices on the one hand, and between electricity markets on the other. The results vary by country due to different generation portfolios. Overall, we find that (a) carbon costs are passed through fully in most countries, and perhaps even by more than 100%; (b) under some model specifications, cost pass-through is similar during peak and during base load for France, Germany and the Netherlands; and (c) the results are sensitive to the degree of cross-commodity and cross-market interaction allowed. We further find that coal prices are negatively and gas prices are positively associated with allowance prices, although the latter effect is not statistically significant in all specifications.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Beat Hintermann, 2011. "Market Power, Permit Allocation and Efficiency in Emission Permit Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 327-349, July.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998.
"Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models,"
Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011.
"Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?,"
1106, Chaire Economie du Climat.
- Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Post-Print hal-01385813, HAL.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I Versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Working Papers 2011-09, CEPII research center.
- Wietze Lise & Jos Sijm & Benjamin Hobbs, 2010. "The Impact of the EU ETS on Prices, Profits and Emissions in the Power Sector: Simulation Results with the COMPETES EU20 Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 47(1), pages 23-44, September.
- Zachmann, Georg & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2008.
"First evidence of asymmetric cost pass-through of EU emissions allowances: Examining wholesale electricity prices in Germany,"
Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 465-469, June.
- Georg Zachmann & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2007. "First Evidence of Asymmetric Cost Pass-Through of EU Emissions Allowances: Examining Wholesale Electricity Prices in Germany," Working Papers 0710, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Georg Zachmann & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2007. "First Evidence of Asymmetric Cost Pass-through of EU Emissions Allowances: Examining Wholesale Electricity Prices in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 708, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Toppinen, Anne, 2013. "Price determination in the EU ETS market: Theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 380-395.
- Lo Prete, Chiara & Norman, Catherine S., 2013. "Rockets and feathers in power futures markets? Evidence from the second phase of the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 312-321.
- Sijm, J. & Neuhoff, K. & Chen, Y., 2006.
"CO2 cost pass through and windfall profits in the power sector,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0639, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Jos Sijm & Karsten Neuhoff & Yihsu Chen, 2006. "CO 2 cost pass-through and windfall profits in the power sector," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 49-72, January.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
- Beat Hintermann, 2014. "Pass-through of CO2 Emission Costs to Hourly Electricity Prices in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 4964, CESifo Group Munich.
- Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
- Harrison Fell, 2010. "EU-ETS and Nordic Electricity: A CVAR Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-26.
- Hintermann, Beat, 2010.
"Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
- Beat Hintermann, 2009. "Allowance Price Drivers in the First Phase of the EU ETS," CEPE Working paper series 09-63, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/6969 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hintermann, Beat & Peterson, Sonja & Rickels, Wilfried, 2014.
"Price and market behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS,"
Kiel Working Papers
1962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Beat Hintermann & Sonja Peterson & Wilfried Rickels, 2014. "Price and Market Behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS," Kiel Working Papers 1962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti & Fabio Baldi, 2010. "Long-run relations in european electricity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 805-832.
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.