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The relationship between EU indicators of persistent and current poverty

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  • Stephen P Jenkins
  • Philippe Van Kerm

Abstract

The current poverty rate and the persistent poverty rate are both included in the EU's portfolio of primary indicators of social inclusion. We show that there is a near-linear relationship between these two indicators across EU countries drawing on empirical analysis of EU-SILC and ECHP data. Using a prototypical model of poverty dynamics, we explain how the near-linear relationship arises and show how the model can be used to predict persistent poverty rates from current poverty information. In the light of the results, we discuss whether the EU's persistent poverty measure and the design of EU-SILC longitudinal data collection require modification.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen P Jenkins & Philippe Van Kerm, 2013. "The relationship between EU indicators of persistent and current poverty," CASE Papers case169, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:sticas:case169
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Persistent poverty; income poverty; poverty; EU-SILC; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

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