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The relationship between EU indicators of persistent and current poverty

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  • Stephen P Jenkins
  • Philippe Van Kerm

Abstract

The current poverty rate and the persistent poverty rate are both included in the EU's portfolio of primary indicators of social inclusion. We show that there is a near-linear relationship between these two indicators across EU countries drawing on empirical analysis of EU-SILC and ECHP data. Using a prototypical model of poverty dynamics, we explain how the near-linear relationship arises and show how the model can be used to predict persistent poverty rates from current poverty information. In the light of the results, we discuss whether the EU's persistent poverty measure and the design of EU-SILC longitudinal data collection require modification.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen P Jenkins & Philippe Van Kerm, 2013. "The relationship between EU indicators of persistent and current poverty," CASE Papers case169, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:sticas:case169
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    File URL: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/case/cp/CASEpaper169.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atkinson, Tony & Cantillon, Bea & Marlier, Eric & Nolan, Brian, 2002. "Social Indicators: The EU and Social Inclusion," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199253494.
    2. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Van Kerm, Philippe & Pi Alperin, Maria Noel, 2013. "Inequality, growth and mobility: The intertemporal distribution of income in European countries 2003–2007," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 931-939.
    4. Eirini Andriopoulou & Panagiotis Tsakloglou, "undated". "The determinants of poverty transitions in Europe and the role of duration dependence," DEOS Working Papers 1119, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    5. Thierry Magnac & Sébastien Roux, 2009. "Dynamique des salaires dans une cohorte," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(1), pages 1-24.
    6. Jenkins, Stephen P., 2011. "Changing Fortunes: Income Mobility and Poverty Dynamics in Britain," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199226436.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jantti, Markus & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2013. "Income mobility," ISER Working Paper Series 2013-23, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    2. Elena Giarda & Gloria Moroni, 2018. "The Degree of Poverty Persistence and the Role of Regional Disparities in Italy in Comparison with France, Spain and the UK," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 163-202, February.
    3. Sara Ayllón & András Gábos, 2017. "The Interrelationships between the Europe 2020 Poverty and Social Exclusion Indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 1025-1049, February.
    4. Van Kerm, Philippe & Pi Alperin, Maria Noel, 2013. "Inequality, growth and mobility: The intertemporal distribution of income in European countries 2003–2007," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 931-939.
    5. Elena Bárcena-Martín & M. Carmen Blanco-Arana & Salvador Pérez-Moreno, 2017. "Dynamics of child poverty in the European countries," Working Papers 437, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    6. Aristei, David & Perugini, Cristiano, 2015. "The drivers of income mobility in Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 197-224.
    7. Martin Biewen, 2014. "Poverty persistence and poverty dynamics," IZA World of Labor, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), pages 103-103, November.
    8. Goraus-Tanska, Karolina & Lewandowski, Piotr, 2016. "Minimum Wage Violation in Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 10098, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. repec:esr:resser:bkmnext345 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:bla:revinw:v:63:y:2017:i:1:p:30-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Diaz, Yadira & Pudney, Stephen, 2013. "Measuring poverty persistence with missing data with an application to Peruvian panel data," ISER Working Paper Series 2013-22, Institute for Social and Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Persistent poverty; income poverty; poverty; EU-SILC; Europe;

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

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