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The relationship between EU indicators of persistent and current poverty

  • Stephen P Jenkins
  • Philippe Van Kerm

The current poverty rate and the persistent poverty rate are both included in the EU's portfolio of primary indicators of social inclusion. We show that there is a near-linear relationship between these two indicators across EU countries drawing on empirical analysis of EU-SILC and ECHP data. Using a prototypical model of poverty dynamics, we explain how the near-linear relationship arises and show how the model can be used to predict persistent poverty rates from current poverty information. In the light of the results, we discuss whether the EU's persistent poverty measure and the design of EU-SILC longitudinal data collection require modification.

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File URL: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/case/cp/CASEpaper169.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE in its series CASE Papers with number case169.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cep:sticas:case169
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/case/_new/publications/default.asp

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  1. Eirini Andriopoulou & Panagiotis Tsakloglou, . "The determinants of poverty transitions in Europe and the role of duration dependence," DEOS Working Papers 1120, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  2. repec:inr:wpaper:20027 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Sébastien Roux & Thierry Magnac, 2009. "Dynamique des salaires dans une cohorte," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 187(1), pages 1-24.
  4. Van Kerm, Philippe & Pi Alperin, Maria Noel, 2013. "Inequality, growth and mobility: The intertemporal distribution of income in European countries 2003–2007," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 931-939.
  5. Jenkins, Stephen P., 2011. "Changing Fortunes: Income Mobility and Poverty Dynamics in Britain," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199226436, March.
  6. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
  7. Atkinson, Tony & Cantillon, Bea & Marlier, Eric & Nolan, Brian, 2002. "Social Indicators: The EU and Social Inclusion," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199253494, March.
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