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Dynamique des salaires dans une cohorte

  • Sébastien Roux
  • Thierry Magnac

[eng] This article examines 1976-1998 annual wage data for a male cohort entering the labor market in 1976. Thanks to the richness of the data, we can analyze wage dynamics during a portion of the cohort’s life cycle – unlike nearly all other studies on the subject, which are obliged to combine different cohorts in order to obtain a sufficient number of observations. We use a pseudo-maximum-likelihood method to estimate various dynamic ARMA panel models with individual effects and time-heterogeneous variances. The results indicate that wage variance, and therefore inequality, rise substantially at the start of the life cycle but appear to stagnate before the end of wage growth. Our estimates show that the process orders are significantly higher than those reported in the literature and are of the ARMA (4,2) type. The estimates highlight the weight of the permanent component reflecting individual effects, which accounts for 60 % of the variance of wage residuals. [fre] Dans cet article, nous examinons les données de salaires annuels, de 1976 à 1998, d’une cohorte d’hommes, entrés sur le marché du travail en 1976. La richesse des données nous permet d’analyser la dynamique des salaires, au cours d’une partie du cycle de vie de cette cohorte, à la différence de la quasi-totalité des autres études sur ce sujet, qui doivent mêler des cohortes différentes, pour avoir un nombre suffisant d’observations. Nous estimons, par pseudo-maximum de vraisemblance, différents modèles dynamiques de panel, de type ARMA, en présence d’effets individuels et de variances hétérogènes temporellement. Les résultats montrent que la variance des salaires, et donc l’inégalité, croît significativement, au cours du début de cycle de vie, mais semble stagner, avant l’arrêt de la croissance des salaires. L’estimation montre que les ordres des processus sont significativement plus élevés, que ceux avancés dans la littérature et sont du type ARMA (4,2). Ces estimations mettent en avant le poids de la composante permanente, liée aux effets individuels, qui rend compte de 60 % de la variance des résidus de salaires.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 187 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-24

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2009_num_187_1_7873
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2009.7873
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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  18. Éric Maurin & Dominique Goux, 1994. "Éducation, expérience et salaire," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 116(5), pages 155-178.
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