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The Relationship between EU Indicators of Persistent and Current Poverty

  • Jenkins, Stephen P.

    ()

    (London School of Economics)

  • Van Kerm, Philippe

    ()

    (LISER (CEPS/INSTEAD))

The current poverty rate and the persistent poverty rate are both included in the EU's portfolio of primary indicators of social inclusion. We show that there is a near-linear relationship between these two indicators across EU countries drawing on empirical analysis of EU-SILC and ECHP data. Using a prototypical model of poverty dynamics, we explain how the near-linear relationship arises and show how the model can be used to predict persistent poverty rates from current poverty information. In the light of the results, we discuss whether the EU's persistent poverty measure and the design of EU-SILC longitudinal data collection require modification.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 7071.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Social Indicators Research, 116 (2), 2014, 611–638
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7071
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  1. Eirini Andriopoulou & Panagiotis Tsakloglou, . "The determinants of poverty transitions in Europe and the role of duration dependence," DEOS Working Papers 1120, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  2. Atkinson, Tony & Cantillon, Bea & Marlier, Eric & Nolan, Brian, 2002. "Social Indicators: The EU and Social Inclusion," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199253494, March.
  3. Jenkins, Stephen P., 2011. "Changing Fortunes: Income Mobility and Poverty Dynamics in Britain," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199226436, March.
  4. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
  5. Sébastien Roux & Thierry Magnac, 2009. "Dynamique des salaires dans une cohorte," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 187(1), pages 1-24.
  6. repec:inr:wpaper:20027 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Van Kerm, Philippe & Pi Alperin, Maria Noel, 2013. "Inequality, growth and mobility: The intertemporal distribution of income in European countries 2003–2007," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 931-939.
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