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Racial Differences in Labor Market Transitions and the Great Recession

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  • Fairlie, Robert

Abstract

Labor force transitions are empirically examined using CPS data matched across months from 1996-2012 for Hispanics, African-Americans and whites. Transition probabilities are contrasted prior to the Great Recession and afterwards. Estimates indicate that minorities are more likely to be fired as business cycle conditions worsen. Estimates also show that minorities are usually more likely to be hired when business cycle conditions are weak. During the Great Recession, the odds of losing a job increased for minorities although cyclical sensitivity of the transition declined. Odds of becoming re-employed declined dramatically for blacks, by 2-4 percent, while the probability was unchanged for Hispanics.

Suggested Citation

  • Fairlie, Robert, 2016. "Racial Differences in Labor Market Transitions and the Great Recession," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4542h7rq, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt4542h7rq
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Couch & Robert Fairlie, 2010. "Last hired, first fired? black-white unemployment and the business cycle," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(1), pages 227-247, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Srikant Devaraj & Pankaj C. Patel, 2017. "Skin Tone and Self-Employment: is there an Intra-Group Variation among Blacks?," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 137-166, June.
    2. Huanan Xu, 2018. "First fired, first hired? Business cycles and immigrant labor market transitions," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-36, December.
    3. Armagan Gezici & Ozge Ozay, 2020. "An Intersectional Analysis of COVID-19 Unemployment," Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 270-281, December.
    4. Forsythe, Eliza & Wu, Jhih-Chian, 2021. "Explaining Demographic Heterogeneity in Cyclical Unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Don Mar & Paul Ong & Tom Larson & James Peoples, 2022. "Racial and ethnic disparities in who receives unemployment benefits during COVID-19," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-17, August.
    6. Allen N. Berger & Maryann P. Feldman & W. Scott Langford & Raluca Roman, 2023. ""Let Us Put Our Moneys Together": Minority-Owned Banks and Resilience to Crises," Working Papers 23-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social and Behavioral Sciences; unemployment; race; minorities; labor market; labor force; dynamics; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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