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The incidence and persistence of cyclical job loss in New Zealand

  • Maré, David C

    ()

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Fabling, Richard

    ()

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

In New Zealand, the impact of the 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was milder than in most other developed countries, though still substantial, with employment declining by 2.5 percent between the fourth quarter of 2008 and the fourth quarter of 2009. There were pronounced declines in job and worker turnover rates, signalling a decline in labour market liquidity and difficulties for new entrants and high-turnover groups of workers (Fabling and Maré, 2012). The current paper documents the extent and composition of employment change between 2000 and 2011, focusing particularly on the 2008–2010 period, when the labour market impacts of the GFC were strongest. As in previous downturns, the incidence of cyclical job loss and unemployment has fallen disproportionately on young and unskilled workers. The paper identifies, for subgroups of workers identified by age, gender and earnings level, the sensitivity of employment growth and labour market flows to aggregate employment fluctuations and also to relative fluctuations across industries and local labour market areas. The rate of job accessions (hiring) is particularly sensitive to the economic cycle and most strongly for young workers. Most of the differences across groups in the size of cyclical employment fluctuations are due to differing responsiveness to common shocks and not to exposure to different industry and local shocks. Finally, the paper traces outcomes for workers whose jobs end, summarising their duration out of work and the wage increases or reductions they experience when they secure employment. Workers who left or lost jobs spent longer out of work after the GFC and settled for lower earnings growth when they did find a job. Both of these effects had partly but not fully abated within 3 years of the onset of the GFC.

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Paper provided by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 13_08.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:13_08
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  1. Rebecca Craigie & David Gillmore & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Matching workers with jobs:how well is the New Zealand labour market doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 3-12, December.
  2. Kenneth Couch & Robert Fairlie, 2010. "Last hired, first fired? black-white unemployment and the business cycle," Demography, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 227-247, February.
  3. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
  4. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
  5. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August.
  6. Derek Neal, 1998. "The Complexity of Job Mobility Among Young Men," NBER Working Papers 6662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gielen, Anne & van Ours, Jan C, 2005. "Age-Specific Cyclical Effects in Job Reallocation and Labour Mobility," CEPR Discussion Papers 5161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Robert Shimer, 2007. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 13421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Richard B. Freeman, 1973. "Changes in the Labor Market for Black Americans, 1948-72," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 67-132.
  10. Richard Fabling & David C. Maré, 2012. "Cyclical Labour Market Adjustment in New Zealand: The Response of Firms to the Global Financial Crisis and its Implications for Workers," Working Papers 12_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  11. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
  12. Papps, Kerry L. & Newell, James O., 2002. "Identifying Functional Labour Market Areas in New Zealand: A Reconnaissance Study Using Travel-to-Work Data," IZA Discussion Papers 443, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Shin, Donggyun, 2000. "Gender and Industry Differences in Employment Cyclicality: Evidence Over the Postwar Period," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 641-50, October.
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