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The business cycle, labor market transitions by age, and the great recession

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  • Huanan Xu
  • Kenneth A. Couch

Abstract

Using matched monthly CPS data, this article studies differences in labour force transitions across age groups focusing on periods prior to and after the start of the Great Recession. Monthly transitions between employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation of 25–55-year-old males are examined from 1996 through 2013. Prior to the Great Recession (1996–2007), younger groups of workers are more likely to move from employment to unemployment and face an increased risk beyond that of other workers of making this transition as the economy worsens; however, this differential responsiveness no longer appears after the start of the Great Recession. Before and after the start of the Great Recession, younger groups of workers are more likely to move from unemployment to employment; however, there is no extra responsiveness among younger workers to the business cycle. Transitions into and out of the labour force nuance these findings; however, there is no evidence of differential responsiveness among younger workers since the start of the Great Recession. These findings challenge interpretation of the movements of unemployment rates by age group over the business cycle as being driven by differential hiring and firing particularly since the start of the Great Recession.

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  • Huanan Xu & Kenneth A. Couch, 2017. "The business cycle, labor market transitions by age, and the great recession," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(52), pages 5370-5396, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:52:p:5370-5396
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1307932
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    1. Grace Weishi Gu & Eswar Prasad & Thomas Moehrle, 2020. "New Evidence on Cyclical Variation in Average Labor Costs in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 966-979, December.
    2. Forsythe, Eliza & Wu, Jhih-Chian, 2021. "Explaining Demographic Heterogeneity in Cyclical Unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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