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Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Priors for Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) Models: DSGE Model Comparison

Author

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  • Theodoridis, Konstantinos

    (Cardiff Business School)

Abstract

This Paper describes a procedure for constructing theory restricted prior distributions for BVAR models. The Bayes Factor, which is obtained without any additional computational effort, can be used to assess the plausibility of the restrictions imposed on the VAR parameter vector by competing DSGE models. In other words, it is possible to rank the amount of abstraction implied by each DSGE model from the historical data.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2007. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Priors for Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) Models: DSGE Model Comparison," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2007/15
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BVAR; DSGE Model Evaluation; Gibbs Sampling; Bayes Factor;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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