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Problems and Prospects for Dynamic Microsimulation: A review and lessons for APPSIM

Author

Listed:
  • Rebecca Cassells

    () (NATSEM, University of Canberra)

  • Ann Harding

    () (NATSEM, University of Canberra)

  • Simon Kelly

    (NATSEM, University of Canberra)

Abstract

This paper has been prepared as the first in a series of papers associated with the development of the Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model (APPSIM). The APPSIM dynamic population microsimulation model is being developed as part of an Australian Research Council (ARC) Linkage grant (LP0562493), and will be used by Commonwealth Government policy makers and other analysts to assess the social and fiscal policy implications of Australia's ageing population. This paper reviews progress nationally and internationally on the construction of dynamic population microsimulation models and considers the lessons that might be taken from that earlier experience for the construction of the APPSIM model.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca Cassells & Ann Harding & Simon Kelly, 2006. "Problems and Prospects for Dynamic Microsimulation: A review and lessons for APPSIM," NATSEM Working Paper Series 63, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
  • Handle: RePEc:cba:wpaper:63
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    File URL: http://www.natsem.canberra.edu.au/files/download?id=253
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(1), pages 77-106, April.
    2. Immervoll, Herwig & Levy, Horacio & Lietz, Christine & Mantovani, Daniela & O'Donoghue, Cathal & Sutherland, Holly & Verbist, Gerlinde, 2005. "Household Incomes and Redistribution in the European Union: Quantifying the Equalising Properties of Taxes and Benefits," IZA Discussion Papers 1824, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis,in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    4. Hielke Buddelmeyer & John Freebairn & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Evaluation of Policy Options to Encourage Welfare to Work," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 39(3), pages 273-292, September.
    5. Massimo Baldini, 2001. "Inequality and Redistribution over the Life-Cycle in Italy: an Analysis with a Dynamic Cohort Microsimulation Model," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 4(2), December.
    6. Productivity Commission, 2005. "Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia," Labor and Demography 0506001, EconWPA.
    7. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
    8. Simon Kelly & Anthony King, 2001. "Australians over the Coming 50 Years: Providing Useful Projections," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 4(2), December.
    9. Harding, Ann, 1993. "Lifetime vs Annual Tax-Transfer Incidence: How Much Less Progressive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(205), pages 179-191, June.
    10. Sutherland, H. (ed.), 1997. "The EUROMOD Preparatory Study: A Summary Report," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9725, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2012. "Simulating Histories within Dynamic Microsimulation Models," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 52-76.
    2. Jan-Maarten van Sonsbeek & j.m.van.sonsbeek@vu.nl, 2011. "Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures: The Social Affairs Department of the Netherlands Ageing and Pensions Model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 4(1), pages 72-99.
    3. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    4. Martin Spielauer, 2007. "Dynamic microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviours: survey and review," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(1), pages 35-53.
    5. Li Tan & Cory Koedel, 2017. "The Effects of Differential Income Replacement and Mortality on U.S. Social Security Redistributions," Working Papers 2017-01, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised Feb 2018.
    6. Li, Jinjing & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2012. "A methodological survey of dynamic microsimulation models," MERIT Working Papers 002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. Eugenio Zucchelli & Andrew M Jones & Nigel Rice, 2012. "The evaluation of health policies through dynamic microsimulation methods," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 2-20.
    8. Alessandro Bucciol & Laura Cavalli & Igor Fedotenkov & Paolo Pertile & Veronica Polin & Nicola Sartor & Alessandro Sommacal, 2014. "A large scale OLG model for France, Italy and Sweden: assessing the interpersonal and intrapersonal redistributive effects of public policies," Working Papers 07/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    9. Zucchelli, E & Jones, A.M & Rice, N, 2010. "The evaluation of health policies through microsimulation methods," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/03, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic microsimulation; forecasting; population ageing;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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