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Le Québec, 2004-2030 : une analyse de micro-simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas-James Clavet
  • Jean-Yves Duclos
  • Bernard Fortin
  • Steeve Marchand

Abstract

Ce rapport présente les résultats préliminaires d'une première version du Modèle de Micro-Simulation de l'Université Laval (SimUL), portant sur l'évolution de divers indicateurs sociaux et de mesures de niveaux de vie pour la période 2004-2030. Cette évolution est largement tributaire des changements démographiques en cours et à prévoir, tels le vieillissement de la population, l'augmentation de l'espérance de vie, l'augmentation de la proportion d'immigrants dans la population et l'augmentation prévisible du niveau de scolarité. En prenant compte de l'ensemble de ces facteurs, les prévisions de SimUL montrent entre autres que les revenus de travail en termes réels des individus devraient augmenter significativement entre 2004 et 2030, même dans un scénario où la productivité du capital humain est maintenue fixe pour un niveau de scolarité donné. De plus, les résultats prévoient des changements dans la participation au marché du travail, notamment une augmentation du nombre d'heures travaillées à temps plein des femmes. La prolongation de la durée des études limitera par ailleurs la participation au marché du travail des plus jeunes (16-24 ans), mais fera augmenter celle des personnes en âge de prendre leur retraite (50 ans et plus). Une part importante des changements dans les indicateurs socio-économiques est ainsi expliquée par l'augmentation du niveau de scolarité des individus.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas-James Clavet & Jean-Yves Duclos & Bernard Fortin & Steeve Marchand, 2012. "Le Québec, 2004-2030 : une analyse de micro-simulation," CIRANO Project Reports 2012rp-16, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirpro:2012rp-16
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    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2012RP-16.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas-James Clavet & Jean-Yves Duclos & Bernard Fortin & Steeve Marchand, 2015. "Reforming Old Age Security: Effects and Alternatives," Canadian Tax Journal, Canadian Tax Foundation, vol. 63(2), pages 357-373.

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