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Dynamic microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviours: survey and review

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  • Martin Spielauer

    (Socio-Economic Analysis and Modeling Division, Statistics Canada, 100 Tunney's Pasture Driveway, Ottawa K1A 0T6 CANADA)

Abstract

This paper reviews the issues to be faced in attempting to create a microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviour. These issues identified via an in-depth review of seven dynamic microsimulation models, selected from an initial set of 27 models in order to highlight the main differences in approaches and modelling options currently adopted. After presenting a brief description of each of the seven selected models, the main modelling approaches are summarized and critically appraised using five main distinguishing criteria. These criteria are the use of alignment techniques, model complexity (as reflected in the range of variables used), theoretical foundations, type of starting population, and the extent and detail of financial issues covered. Building upon this appraisal, the paper goes on to show how the 12 SAGE lessons apply in the field of health care microsimulation. The trade-off between complexity and predictive power is shown to be key. Finally an appendix summarises the main features of all 27 of the dynamic microsimulation models originally surveyed.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Spielauer, 2007. "Dynamic microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviours: survey and review," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(1), pages 35-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:1:y:2007:i:1:p:35-53
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    File URL: http://ima.natsem.canberra.edu.au/IJM/V1_1/IJM_1_1_5.pdf
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    4. Rebecca Cassells & Ann Harding & Simon Kelly, 2006. "Problems and Prospects for Dynamic Microsimulation: A review and lessons for APPSIM," NATSEM Working Paper Series 63, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charlotte Geay & Grégoire de Lagasnerie & Makram Larguem, 2015. "Intégrer les dépenses de santé dans un modèle de microsimulation dynamique : le cas des dépenses de soins de ville," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 481(1), pages 211-234.
    2. GENEVOIS Anne-Sophie & LIEGEOIS Philippe & PI ALPERIN Maria Noel, 2019. "DyMH_LU: a simple tool for modelling and simulating the health status of the Luxembourgish elderly in the longer run," LISER Working Paper Series 2019-06, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    3. van Sonsbeek, Jan-Maarten & Alblas, Ridwan, 2012. "Disability benefit microsimulation models in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 700-715.
    4. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Eva Beaujouan & Paola Di Giulio & Martin Spielauer, 2019. "Simulating Family Life Courses: An Application for Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia," VID Working Papers 1908, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    5. Jakub Bijak & Jason D. Hilton & Eric Silverman & Viet Dung Cao, 2013. "Reforging the Wedding Ring," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(27), pages 729-766.
    6. Nicholas-James Clavet & Jean-Yves Duclos & Bernard Fortin & Steeve Marchand, 2012. "Le Québec, 2004-2030 : une analyse de micro-simulation," CIRANO Project Reports 2012rp-16, CIRANO.
    7. Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer & Peter Reschenhofer, 2020. "Soziale Unterschiede, Lebenserwartung und Gesundheitsausgaben im Lebensverlauf," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66626, February.
    8. Johannes Geyer & Salmai Qari & Hermann Buslei & Peter Haan, 2021. "DySiMo Dokumentation: Version 1.0," Data Documentation 101, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5cg3fnvgpv8u5peaglp6lrkkaq is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Eugenio Zucchelli & Andrew M Jones & Nigel Rice, 2012. "The evaluation of health policies through dynamic microsimulation methods," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 2-20.
    11. C. GEAY & M. KOUBI & G. de LAGASNERIE, 2015. "Evolution of outpatient healthcare expenditure, a dynamic micro-simulation using the Destinie model," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2015-15, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    12. Zucchelli, E & Jones, A.M & Rice, N, 2010. "The evaluation of health policies through microsimulation methods," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/03, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    13. Pei-jun Ye & Xiao Wang & Cheng Chen & Yue-tong Lin & Fei-Yue Wang, 2016. "Hybrid Agent Modeling in Population Simulation: Current Approaches and Future Directions," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 19(1), pages 1-12.
    14. Uwe Siebert & Oguzhan Alagoz & Ahmed M. Bayoumi & Beate Jahn & Douglas K. Owens & David J. Cohen & Karen M. Kuntz, 2012. "State-Transition Modeling," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 32(5), pages 690-700, September.
    15. Beate Jahn & Sarah Friedrich & Joachim Behnke & Joachim Engel & Ursula Garczarek & Ralf Münnich & Markus Pauly & Adalbert Wilhelm & Olaf Wolkenhauer & Markus Zwick & Uwe Siebert & Tim Friede, 2022. "On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(3), pages 349-382, September.
    16. Laurie Brown & Binod Nepal & Heather Booth & Sophie Pennec & Kaarin Anstey & Ann Harding, 2011. "Dynamic Modelling of Ageing and Health: The Dynopta Microsimulation Model," NATSEM Working Paper Series 11/14, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    17. Charlotte Geay & Grégoire de Lagasnerie & Makram Larguem, 2014. "Evolution of outpatient healthcare expenditure due to ageing in 2030, a dynamic micro-simulation model for France," Sciences Po publications 28, Sciences Po.
    18. Maria Ana Matias & Rita Santos & Panos Kasteridis & Katja Grasic & Anne Mason & Nigel Rice, 2022. "Approaches to projecting future healthcare demand," Working Papers 186cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    19. Binod Nepal & Laurie Brown & Simon Kelly & Richard Percival & Phil Anderson & Ruth Hancock & Geetha Ranmuthugala, 2011. "Projecting the Need for Formal and Informal Aged Care in Australia: A Dynamic Microsimulation Approach," NATSEM Working Paper Series 11/07, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    20. Anne Mason & Idaira Rodriguez Santana & María José Aragón & Nigel Rice & Martin Chalkley & Raphael Wittenberg & Jose-Luis Fernandez, 2019. "Drivers of health care expenditure: Final report," Working Papers 169cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.

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