IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijm/journl/v5y2012i1p52-76.html

Simulating Histories within Dynamic Microsimulation Models

Author

Listed:
  • Jinjing Li

    (Maastricht University / UNU-MERIT, Keizer Karelplein 19, Maastricht, the Netherlands)

  • Cathal O'Donoghue

    (Rural Economy and Development Programme, Teagasc, Teagasc Rural Economy Research Centre, Athenry, Co. Galway, Ireland;)

Abstract

Constructing a base dataset is one of the most important elements in the dynamic microsimulation modelling. However, the access to a long historical panel is usually restricted for many reasons. This paper aims to develop a back simulation method that has the potential to generate a consistent synthetic history panel based on a typical household survey dataset with some complementary statistics. The model uses Living in Ireland (LII) household survey as an example to reconstruct the individual labour market trajectory since 1939. The overall results of the simulated panel have been proven sensible and consistent based on several validation tests. This method opens the possibility to further investigate into several fields of application such as life-cycle income analysis and pension reform evaluation, which typically requires the historical profile of individuals and has traditionally been difficult to perform.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2012. "Simulating Histories within Dynamic Microsimulation Models," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 52-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:5:y:2012:i:1:p:52-76
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.microsimulation.org/IJM/V5_1/4_IJM_5_1_spring_2012_Li_ODonoghue.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emmanuelle Walraet & Béatrice Sédillot & José Bardaji, 2003. "Un outil de prospective des retraites : le modèle de microsimulation Destinie," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 160(4), pages 193-213.
    2. Mitton,Lavinia & Sutherland,Holly & Weeks,Melvyn (ed.), 2000. "Microsimulation Modelling for Policy Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521790062, January.
    3. Carl Emmerson & Howard Reed & Andrew Shephard, 2004. "An assessment of PenSim2," IFS Working Papers W04/21, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Rebecca Cassells & Ann Harding & Simon Kelly, 2006. "Problems and Prospects for Dynamic Microsimulation: A review and lessons for APPSIM," NATSEM Working Paper Series 63, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richiardi Matteo & Poggi Ambra, 2012. "Imputing Individual Effects in Dynamic Microsimulation Models. An application of the Rank Method," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201213, University of Turin.
    2. Sheu, Jiuh-Biing & Wu, Hsi-Jen, 2015. "Driver perception uncertainty in perceived relative speed and reaction time in car following – A quantum optical flow perspective," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 257-274.
    3. Leonardo Eric CALCAGNO, 2017. "Does the introduction of non-contributory social benefits discourage registered labour? Testing the impact of pension moratoriums on unregistered employment in Argentina (2003-2015)," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2526, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    4. Li, Jinjing & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2012. "A methodological survey of dynamic microsimulation models," MERIT Working Papers 2012-002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Leonardo Eric Calcagno, 2017. "Does the introduction of non-contributory social benefits discourage registered labour? Testing the impact of pension moratoriums on unregistered employment in Argentina (2003-2015)," Working Papers hal-01611132, HAL.
    6. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Jinjing & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2012. "A methodological survey of dynamic microsimulation models," MERIT Working Papers 2012-002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. Didier Blanchet & Cyrille Hagneré & François Legendre & Florence Thibault, 2015. "Introduction. Microsimulations statique et dynamique appliquées aux politiques fiscales et sociales : modèles et méthodes," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 481(1), pages 5-30.
    3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jessica M. Mc Lay & Roy Lay-Yee & Barry J. Milne & Peter Davis, 2015. "Regression-Style Models for Parameter Estimation in Dynamic Microsimulation: An Empirical Performance Assessment," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 8(2), pages 83-127.
    7. Martin Spielauer & Thomas Horvath & Marian Fink, 2020. "microWELT: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Study of Welfare Transfer Flows in Ageing Societies from a Comparative Welfare State Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 609, WIFO.
    8. R. Aaberge & U. Colombino & T. Wennemo, 2009. "Evaluating Alternative Representations Of The Choice Sets In Models Of Labor Supply," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 586-612, July.
    9. Thierry Debrand & Sophie Pennec & Anne-Gisèle Privat, 2003. "Un modèle de microsimulation pour la projection des retraites du régime général," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 215-230.
    10. Bourguignon, François & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2013. "Income Distribution in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1383-1437, Elsevier.
    11. Jan-Maarten van Sonsbeek & j.m.van.sonsbeek@vu.nl, 2011. "Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures: The Social Affairs Department of the Netherlands Ageing and Pensions Model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 4(1), pages 72-99.
    12. Dimitris Ballas & Richard Kingston & John Stillwell & Jianhui Jin, 2007. "Building a Spatial Microsimulation-Based Planning Support System for Local Policy Making," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 39(10), pages 2482-2499, October.
    13. Manuel García & Juan M. Nave, 2018. "Impacto en las prestaciones de jubilación de la reforma del sistema público de pensiones español," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 224(1), pages 113-137, March.
    14. Lidia Ceriani & Carlo V. Fiorio & Chiara Gigliarano, 2013. "The importance of choosing the data set for tax-benefit analysis," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(6), pages 86-121.
    15. Emanuele Ciani & Marcello Morciano, 2011. "Estimation and Simulation of Earnings in IT-SILC," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0090, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    16. Pierre Courtioux & Stéphane Gregoir & Dede Houeto, 2009. "The Simulation of the Educational Output over the Life Course: The GAMEO Model," Post-Print hal-00391393, HAL.
    17. Sutherland, Holly, 2001. "EUROMOD: an integrated European benefit-tax model: final report," EUROMOD Working Papers EM9/01, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    18. Joachim Merz & Dominik Hanglberger & Rafael Rucha, 2010. "The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services—Microsimulation Policy Results of an Aging Society, Increasing Labour Market Flexibility, and Extended Public Childcare in Germany," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 119-141, June.
    19. Martin Spielauer, 2007. "Dynamic microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviours: survey and review," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(1), pages 35-53.
    20. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(1), pages 77-106, April.
    21. Benczúr, Péter & Kátay, Gábor & Kiss, Áron, 2018. "Assessing the economic and social impact of tax and benefit reforms: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach applied to Hungary," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 441-457.
    22. Alessandro Bucciol & Laura Cavalli & Igor Fedotenkov & Paolo Pertile & Veronica Polin & Nicola Sartor & Alessandro Sommacal, 2014. "A large scale OLG model for France, Italy and Sweden: assessing the interpersonal and intrapersonal redistributive effects of public policies," Working Papers 07/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:5:y:2012:i:1:p:52-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jinjing Li (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.microsimulation.pub .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.