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Un modèle de micro-simulation pour la projection des retraites du régime général

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  • Anne-Gisèle Privat
  • Sophie Pennec
  • Thierry Debrand

Abstract

[eng] The paper describes the CNAV microsimulation model. Currently under construction, it has two aims : to evaluate the future pension rights of private sector employees to 2030, in terms of both mass and scatter, and to measure the savings or costs generated by new measures. Particular attention is paid to the modelling of wages, which play a preponderant role in French pension simulations. The method introduces both microeconomic and macroeconomic factors in the econometric estimation of wage equations. [fre] L’article présente le modèle de microsimulation de la Caisse Nationale d’Assurance Maladie (CNAV). Ce modèle en cours de construction a deux objectifs : fournir une évaluation des droits à la retraite futurs des salariés du secteur privé à l’horizon 2030, aussi bien en termes de masses que de dispersions, et mesurer les économies ou au contraire les coûts engendrés par de nouvelles mesures. Dans cet article, une attention particulière est accordée à la modélisation des salaires dont le rôle est prépondérant pour la simulation des retraites françaises. La démarche retenue prend en compte simultanément les éléments micro et macro-économiques dans l’estimation économétrique des équations de salaires.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne-Gisèle Privat & Sophie Pennec & Thierry Debrand, 2003. "Un modèle de micro-simulation pour la projection des retraites du régime général," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 160(4), pages 215-230.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2003_num_160_4_6928
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2003.6928
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2003.6928
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    Cited by:

    1. Anne-Gisèle Privat, 2005. "L'avenir des retraites en France: Evalutation de l'impact des réformes de 1993 et de 2033 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation Artémis," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
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    3. Karine Briard, 2009. "Un modèle de carrières types dynamiques pondérées pour le régime général d’assurance vieillesse : une application aux conséquences de la réforme de 2003," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 187(1), pages 47-64.
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