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Counteracting cocaine production. An analysis based on a novel dataset

  • L. Leoncini
  • F. Rentocchini

he debate about the effectiveness of the counteracting policies against the supply of drugs, in particular of cocaine, is very lively and intense. Indeed, since many opinions are based on certain measures rather than others, the construction of reliable indicators is one of the preconditions for a correct and concerted assessment of drug supply. The lack of reliable data on drug provision derives, on the one side, from the objective difficulties encountered in assessing the quantitative elements of drug production and drug trafficking due to its illegal nature, and, on the other side, from the lack of a standard methodological approach to the issue. This paper tries to contribute to the topic by proposing a new dataset, based on a completely new approach to the problem of measuring drug supply. We put forward a unique dataset covering cocaine related seizures in Colombia for the whole of year 2008. Data have been collected on a daily basis from the websites of the main organizations fighting against drug traffickers (Army, Air Force, National Police, Departamento Administrativo de Seguridad, Armada Nacional, Fiscalia), detailing each single seizure of laboratories for the production of both basic paste and cocaine hydrochloride. By means of this dataset, we offer some accounts of the main numbers on drug supply and on drug seizures, suggesting some policy options, and arriving to an estimate of cocaine production.

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Paper provided by Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna in its series Working Papers with number 693.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:693
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  1. Daniel Mejía & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Cocaine Production and Trafficking: What do we know?," Borradores de Economia 444, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Moreno-Sanchez, Rocio & Kraybill, David S. & Thompson, Stanley R., 2003. "An Econometric Analysis of Coca Eradication Policy in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 375-383, February.
  4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  5. Fowler, Thomas B., 1996. "The international narcotics trade: Can it be stopped by interdiction?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 233-270, June.
  6. Joshua Angrist & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández-Val, 2006. "Quantile Regression under Misspecification, with an Application to the U.S. Wage Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(2), pages 539-563, 03.
  7. Jeremy Arkes & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & Susan M. Paddock & Jonathan P. Caulkins & Peter Reuter, 2008. "Why the DEA STRIDE Data are Still Useful for Understanding Drug Markets," NBER Working Papers 14224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Chumacero, Romulo A., 2008. "Evo, Pablo, Tony, Diego, and Sonny - general equilibrium analysis of the illegal drugs market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4565, The World Bank.
  9. Daniel Mejía, 2008. "The War on Illegal Drugs in Producer and Consumer Countries: A Simple Analytical Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 2459, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Caulkins Jonathan P & Reuter Peter & Taylor Lowell J, 2006. "Can Supply Restrictions Lower Price? Violence, Drug Dealing and Positional Advantage," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, January.
  11. Horowitz J.L., 2001. "Should the DEAs STRIDE Data Be Used for Economic Analyses of Markets for Illegal Drugs?," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1254-1271, December.
  12. Jan Ours & Stephen Pudney, 2006. "On the Economics of Illicit Drugs," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(4), pages 483-490, December.
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