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The time value of housing: historical evidence on discount rates

Author

Listed:
  • Bracke, Philippe

    () (Bank of England)

  • Pinchbeck, Edward

    () (London School of Economics and Spatial Economics Research Centre)

  • Wyatt, James

    () (parthenia.co.uk.)

Abstract

Most London housing transactions involve trading long leases of varying lengths. We exploit this to estimate the time value of housing — the relationship between the price of a property and the term of ownership — over a hundred years and derive implied discount rates. For our empirical analysis, we compile a unique historical data set (1987 to 1992) to abstract from the right to extend leases currently enjoyed by tenants. Across a variety of specifications and samples we find that leasehold prices are consistent with a time declining schedule and low long-term discount rates in housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Bracke, Philippe & Pinchbeck, Edward & Wyatt, James, 2016. "The time value of housing: historical evidence on discount rates," Bank of England working papers 621, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0621
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Besley, Timothy & Ghatak, Maitreesh, 2010. "Property Rights and Economic Development," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
    3. Philippe Bracke, 2015. "House Prices and Rents: Microevidence from a Matched Data Set in Central London," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 403-431, June.
    4. Joshua Gallin, 2008. "The Long-Run Relationship Between House Prices and Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 635-658, December.
    5. Capozza, Dennis R & Sick, Gordon A, 1991. "Valuing Long-Term Leases: The Option to Redevelop," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 209-223, June.
    6. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
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    11. Maureen L. Cropper & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & William A. Pizer, 2014. "Declining Discount Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 538-543, May.
    12. Ian J. McDonald, 1969. "The Leasehold System: Towards a Balanced Land Tenure for Urban Development," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 6(2), pages 179-195, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bracke, Philippe & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2016. "History dependence in the housing market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86176, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Liu, Haoming & Salvo, Alberto, 2016. "How Do Households Discount over Centuries? Evidence from Singapore's Private Housing Market," IZA Discussion Papers 9862, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; leasehold; discount rates;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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