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The Time Value of Housing: Historical Evidence on Discount Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Bracke
  • Edward W. Pinchbeck
  • James Wyatt

Abstract

Most London housing transactions involve trading long leases of varying lengths. We exploit this to estimate the time value of housing – the relationship between the price of a property and the term of ownership – over a 100 years and derive implied discount rates. For our empirical analysis, we compile a unique historical data set (1987–92) to abstract from the right to extend leases currently enjoyed by tenants. Across a variety of specifications and samples, we find that leasehold prices are consistent with a time declining schedule and low long‐term discount rates in housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bracke & Edward W. Pinchbeck & James Wyatt, 2018. "The Time Value of Housing: Historical Evidence on Discount Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(613), pages 1820-1843, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:128:y:2018:i:613:p:1820-1843
    DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12501
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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Bracke & Silvana Tenreyro, 2021. "History Dependence in the Housing Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 420-443, April.
    2. Hans R.A. Koster & Jan Rouwendal, 2024. "Housing Market Discount Rates: Evidence From Bargaining And Bidding Wars," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 955-1002, May.
    3. Hans R.A. Koster & Edward W. Pinchbeck, 2022. "How Do Households Value the Future? Evidence from Property Taxes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 207-239, February.
    4. Chica-Olmo, Jorge & Cano-Guervos, Rafael, 2020. "Does my house have a premium or discount in relation to my neighbors? A regression-kriging approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Nan Liu, 2021. "Market buoyancy, information transparency and pricing strategy in the Scottish housing market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(16), pages 3388-3406, December.
    6. Hilber, Christian A.L. & Palmer, Charles & Pinchbeck, Edward W., 2019. "The energy costs of historic preservation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Matthew Gibson & Jamie T. Mullins & Alison Hill, 2019. "Climate Risk and Beliefs: Evidence from New York Floodplains," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    8. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Liu, Haoming & Salvo, Alberto, 2016. "How Do Households Discount over Centuries? Evidence from Singapore's Private Housing Market," IZA Discussion Papers 9862, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. David Domeij & Tore Ellingsen, 2020. "Rational Bubbles in UK Housing Markets: Comment on “No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets”," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1755-1766, July.
    10. French, Declan & McKillop, Donal & Sharma, Tripti, 2018. "What determines UK housing equity withdrawal in later life?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 143-154.
    11. Agarwal, Sumit & Qin, Yu & Sing, Tien Foo & Zhan, Changwei, 2025. "Sea level rise risks, adaptation strategies, and real estate prices in Singapore," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    12. Andersen, Carsten, 2022. "Do distant rent flows matter? Inferring discount rates from leasehold apartments in Denmark," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    13. Sidharth Moktan & Benjamin Guin & Liam Clarke, 2025. "The anatomy of a shock to residential real estate: the role of lending," Bank of England working papers 1111, Bank of England.
    14. Eric Fesselmeyer & Haoming Liu & Alberto Salvo, 2022. "Declining discount rates in Singapore's market for privately developed apartments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 330-350, March.
    15. Gautier, Pieter A. & Vuuren, Aico van, 2019. "The effect of land lease on house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    16. Meng, Charlotte C., 2023. "The price paid: Heuristic thinking and biased reference points in the housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Tripti Sharma & Declan French & Donal McKillop, 2022. "Risk and Equity Release Mortgages in the UK," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 274-297, February.
    18. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2021. "The price–rent ratio inequality in Scottish Cities: fluctuations in discount rates and expected rent growth," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(9), pages 1-15, September.
    19. Liu, Nan & Zhao, Yuan & Ge, Jiaqi, 2018. "Do renters skimp on energy efficiency during economic recessions? Evidence from Northeast Scotland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 164-175.
    20. repec:cty:dpaper:(18/06 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Philippe Bracke, 2021. "How Much Do Investors Pay for Houses?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 41-73, March.
    22. Carmelo Giaccotto & Erasmo Giambona & Yanhui Zhao, 2021. "Short-Term and Long-Term Discount Rates For Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 493-524, October.
    23. Francisco Amaral & Martin Dohmen & Sebastian Kohl & Moritz Schularick, 2024. "Interest Rates and the Spatial Polarization of Housing Markets," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 89-104, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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