IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/1111.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The anatomy of a shock to residential real estate: the role of lending

Author

Listed:
  • Moktan, Sidharth

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Guin, Benjamin

    (Bank of England)

  • Clarke, Liam

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

What is the role of lending in transmitting shocks to residential real estate? We consider this question by examining an adverse and salient shock to a segment of the property market in England and Wales. This shock, arising from a tragic event which resulted in significant loss of life, affected high-rise properties.1 Using comprehensive administrative data on all residential mortgage and property transactions, combined with property‑level rent data, we study responses in these markets. Consistent with the idea of credit being a ‘financial accelerator’, we document a decline in mortgage originations following the shock, with the sharpest contraction observed among first‑time buyers. We also highlight the role of cash buyers and lender size in dampening the overall impact of the shock. Additionally, the paper provides a conceptual framework that integrates multiple administrative data sets to understand how salient shocks, including those related to climate risks, may affect the property market. It offers valuable insights for financial policymakers on how these shocks propagate through credit and housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Moktan, Sidharth & Guin, Benjamin & Clarke, Liam, 2025. "The anatomy of a shock to residential real estate: the role of lending," Bank of England working papers 1111, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:1111
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2025/the-anatomy-of-a-shock-to-residential-real-estate-the-role-of-lending.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Chaney & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2012. "The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2381-2409, October.
    2. Saleem Bahaj & Angus Foulis & Gabor Pinter, 2020. "Home Values and Firm Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(7), pages 2225-2270, July.
    3. Duc Duy Nguyen & Steven Ongena & Shusen Qi & Vathunyoo Sila, 2022. "Climate Change Risk and the Cost of Mortgage Credit [Does climate change affect real estate prices? Only if you believe in it]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1509-1549.
    4. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    5. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    6. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    7. Philippe Bracke & Silvana Tenreyro, 2021. "History Dependence in the Housing Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 420-443, April.
    8. Matteo Benetton, 2021. "Leverage Regulation and Market Structure: A Structural Model of the U.K. Mortgage Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2997-3053, December.
    9. Philippe Bracke, 2021. "How Much Do Investors Pay for Houses?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 41-73, March.
    10. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
    11. Kirschenmann, Karolin, 2016. "Credit rationing in small firm-bank relationships," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 68-99.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/75koqefued8i7pihbrl9u84p4u is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Garbarino, Nicola & Guin, Benjamin, 2021. "High water, no marks? Biased lending after extreme weather," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Campello, Murillo & Connolly, Robert A. & Kankanhalli, Gaurav & Steiner, Eva, 2022. "Do real estate values boost corporate borrowing? Evidence from contract-level data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 611-644.
    15. Philippe Bracke & Edward W. Pinchbeck & James Wyatt, 2018. "The Time Value of Housing: Historical Evidence on Discount Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(613), pages 1820-1843, August.
    16. Benjamin J. Keys & Philip Mulder, 2020. "Neglected No More: Housing Markets, Mortgage Lending, and Sea Level Rise," NBER Working Papers 27930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Amir Sufi, 2007. "Information Asymmetry and Financing Arrangements: Evidence from Syndicated Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 629-668, April.
    18. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    19. Kul B. Bhatia, 1987. "Real Estate Assets and Consumer Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(2), pages 437-444.
    20. Markus Baldauf & Lorenzo Garlappi & Constantine Yannelis & José Scheinkman, 2020. "Does Climate Change Affect Real Estate Prices? Only If You Believe In It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1256-1295.
    21. Geraldo Cerqueiro & Steven Ongena & Kasper Roszbach, 2016. "Collateralization, Bank Loan Rates, and Monitoring," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1295-1322, June.
    22. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    23. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Crocker Liu, 2006. "The Financial Accelerator: Evidence from International Housing Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-352, September.
    24. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/75koqefued8i7pihbrl9u84p4u is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Chavaz, Matthieu, 2016. "Dis-integrating credit markets: diversification, securitization, and lending in a recovery," Bank of England working papers 617, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garbarino, Nicola & Guin, Benjamin & Lee, Jonathan, 2022. "The Effects of Subsidized Flood Insurance on Real Estate Markets," Bank of England working papers 995, Bank of England.
    2. Banerjee, Ryan & Blickle, Kristian, 2021. "Financial frictions, real estate collateral and small firm activity in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Justin Contat & Carrie Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2024. "When climate meets real estate: A survey of the literature," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 618-659, May.
    4. Gareth Anderson & Saleem Bahaj & Matthieu Chavaz & Angus Foulis & Gabor Pinter, 2023. "Lending Relationships and the Collateral Channel," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 851-887.
    5. Biguri, Kizkitza, 2023. "How Does Access to the Unsecured Debt Market Affect Investment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Duqi, Andi & McGowan, Danny & Onali, Enrico & Torluccio, Giuseppe, 2021. "Natural disasters and economic growth: The role of banking market structure," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. McInerney, Niall, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy, Banking and the Real Estate Sector," MPRA Paper 91777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    9. Ioannidou, Vasso & Pavanini, Nicola & Peng, Yushi, 2022. "Collateral and asymmetric information in lending markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 93-121.
    10. Horan, Aoife & Jarmulska, Barbara & Ryan, Ellen, 2023. "Asset prices, collateral and bank lending: the case of Covid-19 and real estate," Working Paper Series 2823, European Central Bank.
    11. Gong, Di & Xu, Jiajun & Yan, Jianye, 2023. "National development banks and loan contract terms: Evidence from syndicated loans," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Alberto Martín & Enrique Moral-Benito & Tom Schmitz, 2018. "The Financial Transmission of Housing Bubbles: Evidence from Spain," Working Papers 625, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    13. Ono, Arito & Uchida, Hirofumi & Udell, Gregory F. & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2021. "Lending pro-cyclicality and macroprudential policy: Evidence from Japanese LTV ratios," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    14. Ma, Chao & Zhang, Shuoxun, 2024. "Can housing booms elevate financing costs of financial institutions?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/75koqefued8i7pihbrl9u84p4u is not listed on IDEAS
    16. J. Scott Davis & Kevin X. D. Huang & Ayse Sapci, 2020. "Imperfect substitution in real estate markets and the effect of housing demand on corporate investment," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 20-00002, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    17. Lim , Jamus Jerome & Minne, Geoffrey, 2014. "Learning from financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6838, The World Bank.
    18. Chala, Alemu Tulu & Forssbaeck, Jens, 2018. "Does Collateral Reduce Loan-Size Credit Rationing? Survey Evidence," Working Papers 2018:36, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    19. Chen, Pu & Wang, Chunyang & Liu, Yangyan, 2015. "Real estate prices and firm borrowings: Micro evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 296-308.
    20. Vasso Ioannidou & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking, and Pricing: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 95-144.
    21. Leonardo Gambacorta & Yiping Huang & Zhenhua Li & Han Qiu & Shu Chen, 2023. "Data versus Collateral," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 369-398.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Residential real estate; mortgage market; collateral shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:1111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.