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History Dependence in the Housing Market

Author

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  • Philippe Bracke
  • Silvana Tenreyro

Abstract

Using data on the universe of housing transactions in England and Wales over a 20-year period, we document that sale prices and selling propensities are affected by house prices prevailing in the period in which properties were previously bought. Using administrative data on mortgages, we show that cognitive frictions explain most of the history dependence in sale prices, whereas credit frictions are more relevant for selling propensities. We corroborate our analysis with data on online house listings, and we estimate the impact of history dependence on the collapse and slow recovery of housing market activity in the postcrisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bracke & Silvana Tenreyro, 2021. "History Dependence in the Housing Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 420-443, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:420-43
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180241
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chiranjit Chakraborty & Andreas Joseph, 2017. "Machine learning at central banks," Bank of England working papers 674, Bank of England.
    2. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan & Sorensen, Kade, 2021. "A Time-Varying Hedonic Approach to quantifying the effects of loss aversion on house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Sidharth Moktan & Benjamin Guin & Liam Clarke, 2025. "The anatomy of a shock to residential real estate: the role of lending," Bank of England working papers 1111, Bank of England.
    4. Nicola Garbarino & Benjamin Guin & Jonathan Lee, 2022. "The Effects of Subsidized Flood Insurance on Real Estate Markets," Bank of England working papers 995, Bank of England.
    5. Lamorgese, Andrea R. & Pellegrino, Dario, 2022. "Loss aversion in housing appraisal: Evidence from Italian homeowners," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Hurmeranta, Risto & Lyytikäinen, Teemu, 2025. "Nominal Loss Aversion in the Housing Market and Household Mobility," Working Papers 178, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Badarinza, Cristian & Ramadorai, Tarun & Siljander, Juhana & Tripathy, Jagdish, 2024. "Behavioral Lock-In: Aggregate Implications of Reference Dependence in the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 19123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ross, Stephen L. & Zhou, Tingyu, 2024. "Loss aversion and focal point bias: Empirical evidence from housing markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    9. Giacoletti, Marco & Parsons, Christopher A., 2022. "Peak-Bust rental spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 504-526.
    10. Jamie Coen & Anil Kashyap & May Rostom, 2021. "Price discrimination and mortgage choice," Bank of England working papers 926, Bank of England.
    11. Ling Li & Wayne Xinwei Wan, 2024. "The Effect of Expected Losses on the Hong Kong Property Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(4), pages 654-683, May.
    12. Edika Quispe-Torreblanca & David Hume & John Gathergood & George Loewenstein & Neil Stewart, 2023. "At the Top of the Mind: Peak Prices and the Disposition Effect," Discussion Papers 2023-09, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    13. Jordan Rappaport, 2023. "Home Prices Are Overvalued but Will Decline Only Gradually," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue February , pages 1-4, February.
    14. Steegmans, Joep & Hassink, Wolter, 2025. "Nominal loss aversion and equity constraints in house price determination: Empirical evidence in the absence of down-payment constraints," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    15. Zhou, Tingyu & Clapp, John M & Lu-Andrews, Ran, 2021. "Is the behavior of sellers with expected gains and losses relevant to cycles in house prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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