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Traspaso del incremento de la tarifa del IVA sobre la inflación

Author

Listed:
  • Edgar Caicedo-García Jorge
  • Enrique Ramos-Forero
  • Hernán Rincón-Castro
  • Héctor M. Zárate-Solano

Abstract

Una de las preocupaciones de los consumidores y de las autoridades monetarias frente al cambio de la tarifa del IVA es el impacto que este tipo de medidas tiene sobre el valor de la canasta básica de consumo y el crecimiento de los precios. El objetivo de este estudio es estimar el grado de traspaso que el incremento de la tarifa del IVA del 16% al 19% en 2016 registró sobre la inflación al consumidor. Se utilizan tres metodologías: la primera tiene como soporte las ponderaciones de los grupos de bienes y servicios de la canasta del IPC y la segunda la matriz insumo-producto. La tercera metodología corresponde a la aplicación del procedimiento de índices subrogados. De acuerdo con los resultados de las dos primeras metodologías, el traspaso del incremento de la tarifa sobre la inflación del IPC fue de 1,03 puntos porcentuales (pp), de los cuales 0,68 pp se explican por el efecto directo, calculado a través de los ponderadores del IPC y 0,35 pp por el efecto indirecto obtenido mediante la matriz insumo producto, y que equivale a un porcentaje de traspaso total del 40%. El resultado del procedimiento de índices subrogados revela que la transmisión sobre la inflación del IPC fue de 0,84 pp, lo cual equivale a un porcentaje de traspaso del 33%. Cuando se analizan los índices que componen la canasta del IPC de manera desagregada se encuentra que el grado de traspaso es altamente heterogéneo. **** ABSTRACT: One of the concerns of consumers and monetary authorities regarding the change in the VAT rate is the impact that this type of measure has on the value of the basic consumption basket and price growth. The objective of this study is to estimate the degree of pass-through that the VAT rate increase from 16% to 19% in 2016 registered on consumer inflation. Three methodologies are used: the first one is based on the weights of the groups of goods and services of the CPI basket and the second one is based on the input-output matrix. The third methodology corresponds to the application of the surrogate index procedure. According to the results of the first two methodologies, the pass-through of the tariff increase on CPI inflation was 1.03 percentage points (pp), of which 0.68 pp are explained by the direct effect, calculated through the CPI weights, and 0.35 pp by the indirect effect obtained through the input-output matrix, which is equivalent to a total pass-through percentage of 40%. The result of the proxy index procedure reveals that the pass-through on CPI inflation was 0.84 pp, which corresponds to a pass-through percentage of 33%. When the indexes that make up the CPI basket are analyzed in a disaggregated manner, it is found that the degree of pass-through is highly heterogeneous.

Suggested Citation

  • Edgar Caicedo-García Jorge & Enrique Ramos-Forero & Hernán Rincón-Castro & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano, 2025. "Traspaso del incremento de la tarifa del IVA sobre la inflación," Borradores de Economia 1310, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1310
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1310
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IVA; traspaso; inflación al consumidor; ponderaciones; matriz insumoproducto; índices subrogados; Pass-through; VAT; CPI inflation; weightings; input-output matrix; surrogate index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence

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