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Mortgage Default in an Estimated Model of the U.S. Housing Market

Author

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  • Luisa Lambertini
  • Victoria Nuguer
  • Pinar Uysal

Abstract

This paper models the housing sector, mortgages and endogenous default in a DSGE setting with nominal and real rigidities. We use data for the period 1981-2006 to estimate our model using Bayesian techniques. We analyze how an increase in risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and spreads to the rest of the economy, creating a recession. In our model two shocks are well suited to replicate the subprime crisis and the Great Recession: the mortgage risk shock and the housing demand shock. Next we use our estimated model to evaluate a policy that reduces the principal of underwater mortgages. This policy is successful in stabilizing the mortgage market and makes all agents better off.

Suggested Citation

  • Luisa Lambertini & Victoria Nuguer & Pinar Uysal, 2017. "Mortgage Default in an Estimated Model of the U.S. Housing Market," Working Papers 2017-06, Banco de México.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2017-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2016. "Borrower heterogeneity within a risky mortgage-lending market," FinMaP-Working Papers 67, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    2. Julio Carrillo & Enrique G. Mendoza & Victoria Nuguer & Jessica Roldan-Pena, 2017. "Tight Money-Tight Credit: Coordination Failure in the Conduct of Monetary and Financial Policies," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Feb 2017.
    3. Hamed Ghiaie, 2017. "Credit Crunch On Financial Intermediary," THEMA Working Papers 2017-09, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    4. Pavan, Marina & Barreda-Tarrazona, Iván, 2020. "Should I default on my mortgage even if I can pay? Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Francesco Ferrante, 2015. "Risky Mortgages, Bank Leverage and Credit Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-110, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Victoria Nuguer & Jessica Roldan-Pena & Enrique Mendoza & Julio Carrillo, 2016. "When the Central Bank Meets the Financial Authority: Strategic Interactions and Institutional Design," 2016 Meeting Papers 1461, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; Mortgage Default; DSGE model; Bayesian Estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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