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Decoupling of C02 Emissions and GDP: A Time-Varying Cointegration Approach

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  • Jeyhun I. Mikayilov
  • Fakhri J. Hasanov
  • Marzio Galeotti

Abstract

The relationship between CO2 emissions, the main gas responsible for global warming, and economic growth is among the most studied themes of environmental economics. Reducing overall emissions while keeping a high pace of economic development is at the heart of the notion of sustainable development. Economists refer to the case when emissions increase (resp. decrease) less rapidly than the pace of economic growth as relative (resp. absolute) decoupling. This requires the empirical analysis of the emissions-GDP relationship. The study of this relationship has special importance for developed countries, since they have been historically the main contributors of the global warming. Unlike the bulk of the literature, in this paper we allow the income elasticity of emissions – a critical metrics for the study of decoupling – to vary over time. The reason is that the elasticity might change through the time due to the factors affecting the drivers of the CO2 emissions. We use a time-varying coefficients cointegration approach to investigate the CO2 emissions-GDP relationship for 12 Western European countries over a long period ranging from 1861 to 2015. The main finding is that the income elasticities of CO2 emissions are found to be positive in all investigated countries. In addition, we find evidence in favor of relative decoupling – emissions increasing more slowly than GDP – in 8 out of the 12 European countries. The remaining 4 cases the income elasticity of CO2 emissions are in excess of unity. In nearly half of cases the analysis confirms a statistically significant time-varying pattern for the income elasticities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Fakhri J. Hasanov & Marzio Galeotti, 2018. "Decoupling of C02 Emissions and GDP: A Time-Varying Cointegration Approach," IEFE Working Papers 101, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcu:iefewp:iefewp101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Polemis, Michael & Fotis, Panagiotis & Tzeremes, Panagiotis & Tzeremes, Nickolaos, 2021. "On the examination of the decoupling effect of air pollutants from economic growth: A convergence analysis for the US," MPRA Paper 106412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fengsong Pei & Rui Zhong & Li-An Liu & Yingjuan Qiao, 2021. "Decoupling the Relationships between Carbon Footprint and Economic Growth within an Urban Agglomeration—A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta in China," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(9), pages 1-15, September.
    4. YuSheng Kong & Rabnawaz Khan, 2019. "To examine environmental pollution by economic growth and their impact in an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) among developed and developing countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-23, March.
    5. Mikulčić, Hrvoje & Ridjan Skov, Iva & Dominković, Dominik Franjo & Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah & Manan, Zainuddin Abdul & Tan, Raymond & Duić, Neven & Hidayah Mohamad, Siti Nur & Wang, Xuebin, 2019. "Flexible Carbon Capture and Utilization technologies in future energy systems and the utilization pathways of captured CO2," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Roberto J. Santillán-Salgado & Humberto Valencia-Herrera & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2020. "On the Relations among CO2 Emissions, Gross Domestic Product, Energy Consumption, Electricity Use, Urbanization, and Income Inequality for a Sample of 134 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 195-207.
    7. Mariola Piłatowska & Andrzej Geise & Aneta Włodarczyk, 2020. "The Effect of Renewable and Nuclear Energy Consumption on Decoupling Economic Growth from CO 2 Emissions in Spain," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Amine Ben Amar, 2021. "Economic growth and environment in the United Kingdom: robust evidence using more than 250 years data," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 23(4), pages 667-681, October.
    9. Mariola Piłatowska & Andrzej Geise, 2021. "Impact of Clean Energy on CO 2 Emissions and Economic Growth within the Phases of Renewables Diffusion in Selected European Countries," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, February.
    10. Mehmet Akif, Destek & Muhammad, Shahbaz & Ilyas, Okumus & Shawkat, Hammoudeh & Avik, Sinha, 2020. "The relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in G-7 countries: evidence from time-varying parameters with a long history," MPRA Paper 100514, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2020.
    11. Piotr Niedzielski & Magdalena Zioło & Jarosław Kozuba & Ewa Kuzionko-Ochrymiuk & Natalia Drop, 2021. "Analysis of the Relationship of the Degree of Aviation Sector Development with Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Measures of Economic Development in the European Union Countries," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.
    12. Asl, Mahdi Ghaemi & Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M., 2021. "Dynamic asymmetric optimal portfolio allocation between energy stocks and energy commodities: Evidence from clean energy and oil and gas companies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Kyungsik Nam & Sungro Lee & Hocheol Jeon, 2020. "Nonlinearity between CO 2 Emission and Economic Development: Evidence from a Functional Coefficient Panel Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(24), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Anastasia Kulachinskaya & Irina G. Akhmetova & Varvara Y. Kulkova & Svetlana B. Ilyashenko, 2020. "The Challenge of the Energy Sector of Russia during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic through the Example of the Republic of Tatarstan: Discussion on the Change of Open Innovation in the Energy Sector," Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(3), pages 1-12, July.
    15. Jeyhun Mikayilov & Fred Joutz & Fakhri Hasanov, 2019. "Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the Price and Income Elasticities Constant?," Discussion Papers ks--2019-dp81, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; time-varying coefficient cointegration; economic growth; EKC hypothesis; decoupling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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