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Mobile Foreigners: Mortgage Lock-In and H-1B Demand

Author

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  • Duha T. Altindag
  • John M. Nunley
  • R. Alan Seals

Abstract

The 2022 rise in U.S. mortgage rates increased relocation costs for homeowners with low-rate mortgages. This cost varies across destinations because each draws workers from a different mix of labor markets. We build an in-migration mortgage-payment wedge from HMDA loans and pre-shock IRS migration networks. From 2017 to 2024, higher wedges reduce college-educated homeowner in-migration, leave renters unaffected, and raise H-1B sponsorship requests. The implied offset is 14 H-1B sponsorship requests per 100 deterred college-educated domestic in-migrants. We show that mortgage lock-in operates as a destination-side labor-market shock that shifts part of firms' adjustment toward employer-sponsored immigration.

Suggested Citation

  • Duha T. Altindag & John M. Nunley & R. Alan Seals, 2026. "Mobile Foreigners: Mortgage Lock-In and H-1B Demand," Papers 2605.28904, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.28904
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