IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2604.26457.html

Marshall meets Bartik: Revisiting the mysteries of the trade

Author

Listed:
  • Yasusada Murata
  • Ryo Nakajima

Abstract

We identify a causal effect of top inventor inflows on the patent productivity of local inventors by combining the idea-generating process described by Marshall (1890) with the Bartik (1991) instruments involving the state taxes and commuting zone characteristics of the United States. We find that local productivity gains go beyond organizational boundaries and co-inventor relationships, which implies the partially nonexcludable good nature of knowledge in a spatial economy and pertains to the mysteries of the trade in the air. Our counterfactual experiment suggests that the spatial distribution of inventive activity is substantially distorted by the presence of state tax differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasusada Murata & Ryo Nakajima, 2026. "Marshall meets Bartik: Revisiting the mysteries of the trade," Papers 2604.26457, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2604.26457
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2604.26457
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uri Simonsohn & Joseph P. Simmons & Leif D. Nelson, 2020. "Specification curve analysis," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1208-1214, November.
    2. I. P. L. Png, 2017. "Secrecy and Patents: Theory and Evidence from the Uniform Trade Secrets Act," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 176-193, September.
    3. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    4. Isaiah Andrews & James H. Stock & Liyang Sun, 2019. "Weak Instruments in Instrumental Variables Regression: Theory and Practice," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 727-753, August.
    5. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    6. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2025. "A Practical Guide to Shift-Share Instruments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 181-204, Winter.
    7. Rodrigo Adão & Michal Kolesár & Eduardo Morales, 2019. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 1949-2010.
    8. Kurt Schmidheiny & Sebastian Siegloch, 2023. "On event studies and distributed‐lags in two‐way fixed effects models: Identification, equivalence, and generalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 695-713, August.
    9. George J. Borjas & Kirk B. Doran, 2021. "The Collapse Of The Soviet Union And The Productivity Of American Mathematicians," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 11, pages 313-373, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Kawika Pierson & Michael L Hand & Fred Thompson, 2015. "The Government Finance Database: A Common Resource for Quantitative Research in Public Financial Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Rodrigo Ad~ao & Michal Koles'ar & Eduardo Morales, 2018. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," Papers 1806.07928, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    12. Carlino, Gerald & Kerr, William R., 2015. "Agglomeration and Innovation," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 349-404, Elsevier.
    13. Pierre Azoulay & Joshua S. Graff Zivin & Jialan Wang, 2010. "Superstar Extinction," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(2), pages 549-589.
    14. Li, Guan-Cheng & Lai, Ronald & D’Amour, Alexander & Doolin, David M. & Sun, Ye & Torvik, Vetle I. & Yu, Amy Z. & Fleming, Lee, 2014. "Disambiguation and co-authorship networks of the U.S. patent inventor database (1975–2010)," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 941-955.
    15. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2022. "Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 181-213.
    16. Yasusada Murata & Ryo Nakajima & Ryosuke Okamoto & Ryuichi Tamura, 2014. "Localized Knowledge Spillovers and Patent Citations: A Distance-Based Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 967-985, December.
    17. Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2021. "The Effects of Taxes on Innovation: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 16608, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    18. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 17-45, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-1278, December.
    20. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    21. Marta Prato, 2025. "The Global Race for Talent: Brain Drain, Knowledge Transfer, and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 140(1), pages 165-238.
    22. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
    23. Zacchia, Paolo, 2018. "Benefiting colleagues but not the city: Localized effects from the relocation of superstar inventors," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 992-1005.
    24. Chernozhukov, Victor & Hansen, Christian, 2008. "The reduced form: A simple approach to inference with weak instruments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 68-71, July.
    25. Ashesh Rambachan & Jonathan Roth, 2023. "A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2555-2591.
    26. repec:bof:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201512111472 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Enrico Moretti, 2021. "The Effect of High-Tech Clusters on the Productivity of Top Inventors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(10), pages 3328-3375, October.
    28. Enrico Moretti & Daniel J. Wilson, 2017. "The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1858-1903, July.
    29. Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg & Rebecca Henderson, 1993. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 577-598.
    30. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "Taxing Top Incomes in a World of Ideas," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(9), pages 2227-2274.
    31. José Luis Montiel Olea & Carolin Pflueger, 2013. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 358-369, July.
    32. Uri Simonsohn & Joseph P. Simmons & Leif D. Nelson, 2020. "Publisher Correction: Specification curve analysis," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1215-1215, November.
    33. I. P. L. Png, 2017. "Law and Innovation: Evidence from State Trade Secrets Laws," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 167-179, March.
    34. Michael J. Andrews, 2023. "How Do Institutions of Higher Education Affect Local Invention? Evidence from the Establishment of US Colleges," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 1-41, May.
    35. Jan K. Brueckner, 2003. "Strategic Interaction Among Governments: An Overview of Empirical Studies," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(2), pages 175-188, April.
    36. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Mathilde Muñoz & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2020. "Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 119-142, Spring.
    37. Jorge De La Roca & Diego Puga, 2017. "Learning by Working in Big Cities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(1), pages 106-142.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Enrico Moretti, 2021. "The Effect of High-Tech Clusters on the Productivity of Top Inventors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(10), pages 3328-3375, October.
    2. Cui, Wenyue, 2025. "Shadow and spillover: The influence of neighboring innovative cities on regional innovation growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Siwei Cao & Guangrong Ma & Hao Mao, 2024. "Is distance really dying? Transportation and knowledge spillovers," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 355-405, March.
    4. Gehrke, Esther & Genthner, Robert & Kis-Katos, Krisztina, 2025. "Regulating manufacturing FDI: Local labor market responses to a protectionist policy in Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    5. Benjamin Balsmeier & Lee Fleming & Matt Marx & Seungryul Ryan Shin, 2020. "Startups, Unicorns, and the Local Inflow of Inventors," NBER Working Papers 27605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Shunyao Yan & Klaus M. Miller, 2026. "Engagement vs. Commitment: The Economic Trade-Offs of Polarizing News Content," Papers 2605.18357, arXiv.org.
    7. Pallante, Gianluca & Russo, Emanuele & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "Does public R&D funding crowd-in private R&D investment? Evidence from military R&D expenditures for US states," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(8).
    8. Zacchia, Paolo, 2018. "Benefiting colleagues but not the city: Localized effects from the relocation of superstar inventors," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 992-1005.
    9. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2014. "The Growth of Cities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 5, pages 781-853, Elsevier.
    10. Carlino, Gerald & Kerr, William R., 2015. "Agglomeration and Innovation," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 349-404, Elsevier.
    11. Miriam Fritzsche, 2024. "De-industrialization, local joblessness and the male-female employment gap," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0040, Berlin School of Economics.
    12. Haveresch, Nils & Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Bensch, Gunther, 2025. "A Slippery Slope: Topographic Variation as an Instrument," I4R Discussion Paper Series 278, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    13. Andrews, Michael J. & Whalley, Alexander, 2022. "150 years of the geography of innovation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. Anna Baiardi & Paul S. Clarke & Andrea A. Naghi & Annalivia Polselli, 2026. "Double Machine Learning for Static Panel Data with Instrumental Variables: New Method and Applications," Papers 2603.20464, arXiv.org.
    15. Francesco Campo & Mariapia Mendola & Andrea Morrison & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2022. "Talents and Cultures: Immigrant Inventors and Ethnic Diversity in the Age of Mass Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1971-2012.
    16. Gilles Duranton & Diego Puga, 2020. "The Economics of Urban Density," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    17. Davis, James C. & Paudel, Krishna P. & Rupasingha, Anil, 2025. "Income, Policy, and Water Pollution," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361283, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Bekhtiar, Karim, 2025. "The decline of manufacturing employment and the rise of the far-right in Austria," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    19. Denninger, Jan & Kaplan, Lennart, 2025. "The great equalizer: Effects of Chinese official finance on economic complexity across recipient countries," Kiel Working Papers 2281, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    20. Zhang, Yichuan & Leng, Xuan & Zhu, Tianyun, 2025. "Offline vs. Online interactions: The effects on scientific research," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(6).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2604.26457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.