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Strategic Complementarities in a Dynamic Model of Technology Adoption: P2P Digital Payments

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Álvarez

    (University of Chicago)

  • David Argente

    (Yale University and NBER)

  • Francesco Lippi

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Esteban Méndez-Chacón

    (Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica)

  • Diana Van Patten

    (Yale University and NBER)

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model of technology adoption featuring strategic complementarities: the benefits of usage increase with the number of adopters. We study the diffusion of new means of payments, where such complementarities are pervasive. We show that complementarities give rise to multiple equilibria, suboptimal allocations, and study the planner’s problem. The model generates gradualism in adoption, as individuals optimally wait for others to adopt before doing so. We apply the theory to the adoption of SINPE, an electronic peer-to- peer (P2P) payment app developed by the Central Bank of Costa Rica. Transaction-level data on the use of SINPE and several administrative data sets on the network structure allow us to exploit plausibly exogenous variation and to document sizable complementarities. A calibrated version of the model shows that the optimal subsidy pushes the economy to universal adoption. ***Resumen: Este documento desarrolla un modelo dinámico de adopción de tecnología que presenta complementariedades estratégicas: los beneficios del uso aumentan con el número de adoptantes. Estudiamos la difusión de nuevos medios de pago, donde tales complementariedades son generalizadas. Mostramos que las complementariedades dan lugar a equilibrios múltiples, asignaciones subóptimas y estudiamos el problema del planificador. El modelo genera gradualismo en la adopción, ya que los individuos esperan óptimamente a que otros adopten antes de hacerlo. Aplicamos la teoría a la adopción de SINPE Móvil, una plataforma de pago electrónico entre pares (P2P) desarrollada por el Banco Central de Costa Rica. Datos sobre la estructura de la red nos permiten explotar una variación exógena plausible y documentar complementariedades considerables. Una versión calibrada del modelo muestra que el subsidio óptimo empuja a la economía a la adopción universal.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Álvarez & David Argente & Francesco Lippi & Esteban Méndez-Chacón & Diana Van Patten, 2023. "Strategic Complementarities in a Dynamic Model of Technology Adoption: P2P Digital Payments," Documentos de Trabajo 2307, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    • Handle: RePEc:apk:doctra:2307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco J. Buera & Nicholas Trachter, 2024. "Sectoral Development Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 32230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost & Jonathan Warren & Clair Yang & Carolina Velásquez, 2024. "Retail fast payment systems as a catalyst for digital finance," BIS Working Papers 1228, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Nocciola, Luca & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro, 2024. "Transactional demand for central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2926, European Central Bank.
    4. Federico Cannerozzi & Giorgio Ferrari, 2024. "Cooperation, Correlation and Competition in Ergodic N-player Games and Mean-field Games of Singular Controls: A Case Study," Papers 2404.15079, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    5. David Argente & Paula Gonzalez Alvarez & Esteban Méndez & Diana Van Patten, 2025. "Drivers of Digital Payment Adoption: Lessons from Brazil, Costa Rica, and Mexico," NBER Working Papers 34280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Riley, Emma & Shonchoy, Abu S. & Osei, Robert Darko, 2025. "Incentives and endorsement for technology adoption: Evidence from mobile banking in Ghana," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    7. Cannerozzi, Federico & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2024. "Cooperation, Correlation and Competition in Ergodic $N$-Player Games and Mean-Field Games of Singular Controls: A Case Study," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 691, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.

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    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy

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