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Strategic Complementarities in a Dynamic Model of Technology Adoption: P2P Digital Payments

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando E. Alvarez
  • David Argente
  • Francesco Lippi
  • Esteban Méndez
  • Diana Van Patten

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model of technology adoption featuring strategic complementarities: the benefits of usage increase with the number of adopters. We study the diffusion of new means of payments, where such complementarities are pervasive. We show that complementarities give rise to multiple equilibria, suboptimal allocations, and study the planner’s problem. The model generates gradualism in adoption, as individuals optimally wait for others to adopt before doing so. We apply the theory to the adoption of SINPE, an electronic peer-to-peer (P2P) payment app developed by the Central Bank of Costa Rica. Transaction-level data on the use of SINPE and several administrative data sets on the network structure allow us to exploit plausibly exogenous variation and to document sizable complementarities. A calibrated version of the model shows that the optimal subsidy pushes the economy to universal adoption.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando E. Alvarez & David Argente & Francesco Lippi & Esteban Méndez & Diana Van Patten, 2023. "Strategic Complementarities in a Dynamic Model of Technology Adoption: P2P Digital Payments," NBER Working Papers 31280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31280
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    Cited by:

    1. David Argente & Paula Gonzalez Alvarez & Esteban Méndez & Diana Van Patten, 2025. "Drivers of Digital Payment Adoption: Lessons from Brazil, Costa Rica, and Mexico," NBER Working Papers 34280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Riley, Emma & Shonchoy, Abu S. & Osei, Robert Darko, 2025. "Incentives and endorsement for technology adoption: Evidence from mobile banking in Ghana," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    3. Cannerozzi, Federico & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2024. "Cooperation, Correlation and Competition in Ergodic $N$-Player Games and Mean-Field Games of Singular Controls: A Case Study," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 691, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    4. Francisco J. Buera & Nicholas Trachter, 2024. "Sectoral Development Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 32230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Federico Cannerozzi & Giorgio Ferrari, 2024. "Cooperation, Correlation and Competition in Ergodic N-player Games and Mean-field Games of Singular Controls: A Case Study," Papers 2404.15079, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    6. Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost & Jonathan Warren & Clair Yang & Carolina Velásquez, 2024. "Retail fast payment systems as a catalyst for digital finance," BIS Working Papers 1228, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Nocciola, Luca & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro, 2024. "Transactional demand for central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2926, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy

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