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Temporary Jobs and State Dependence in Italy

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  • Matteo PICCHIO

    () (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia)

Abstract

A dynamic unobserved effects probit analysis has been carried out to test the hypothesis of state dependence of temporary jobs and to understand their determinants. The econometric analysis has been conducted using the 2000, 2002, and 2004 waves of the Survey of Italian Households' Income and Wealth. The results show that, firstly, jobless and unstable workers are more likely to end up in temporary contracts. Secondly, there is a significant true state dependence effect of temporary contracts that might be due to the fact that firms are systematically using temporary jobs to face demand uncertainty: loss of motivation and depreciation of human capital due to low firm-specific investments may make temporary workers less likely to jump on stabler job relationships. Moreover, the true state dependence could be related to the presence of a dual labour market, segmented into "bad" and "good" jobs. Thirdly, a significant feedback effect from past temporary jobs to recent unemployment spells has been detected. Therefore, jobless and unstable workers are more likely to end up into temporary relationship generating a loss of human capital, affecting the workers' allocation in the whole economy, and widening the gap between possibly segmented labour markets. The policy maker might be aware of these costs associated to the widespread of temporary jobs and design policies to target those workers suffering most from the trap of temporary positions.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo PICCHIO, 2006. "Temporary Jobs and State Dependence in Italy," Working Papers 272, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  • Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:272
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    File URL: http://docs.dises.univpm.it/web/quaderni/pdf/272.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matteo, PICCHIO, 2006. "Wage Differentials and Temporary Jobs in Italy," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006033, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    2. Gagliarducci, Stefano, 2005. "The dynamics of repeated temporary jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 429-448, August.
    3. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2000. "A framework for estimating dynamic, unobserved effects panel data models with possible feedback to future explanatory variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 245-250, September.
    4. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Jeff Frank, 2002. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones Or Dead Ends?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages 189-213, June.
    5. Andrea Ichino & Fabrizia Mealli & Tommaso Nannicini, 2005. "Temporary Work Agencies in Italy: A Springboard Toward Permanent Employment?," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 64(1), pages 1-27, September.
    6. Matteo PICCHIO, 2006. "Wage Differentials between Temporary and Permanent Workers in Italy," Working Papers 257, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    7. Biewen, Martin, 2004. "Measuring State Dependence in Individual Poverty Status: Are There Feedback Effects to Employment Decisions and Household Composition?," IZA Discussion Papers 1138, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Juan F. Jimeno & Luis Toharia, 1993. "The effects of fixed-term employment on wages: theory and evidence from Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 475-494, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Berton & Francesco Devicienti & Lia Pacelli, 2007. "Temporary jobs: Port of entry, Trap, or just Unobserved Heterogeneity?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 68, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    2. Ugo FRATESI, 2010. "The National and International Effects;of Regional Policy Choices: Agglomeration Economies, Peripherality and Territorial Characteristics," Working Papers 344, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Lia Pacelli & Silvia Pasqua & Claudia Villosio, 2007. "What does the stork bring to women's working career?," CHILD Working Papers wp16_07, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
    4. Maurizio Baussola & Chiara Mussida, 2011. "The natural rate of unemployment and the unemployment gender gap," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali dises1180, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    5. Luca RICCETTI, 2010. "Minimum Tracking Error Volatility," Working Papers 340, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    6. Fabio FIORILLO & Agnese SACCHI, 2010. "I Want to Free-ride. An Opportunistic View on Decentralization Versus Centralization Problem," Working Papers 346, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    7. Fabio Berton, 2008. "The (long) run out of unemployment: are temporary jobs the shortest way?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 76, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic unobserved effects probit model; feedback effects; individual heterogeneity; temporary employment;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • J29 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Other

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