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Exploring Nonlinearities in Financial Systemic Risk

Listed author(s):
  • Wolski, M.

    ()

    (University of Amsterdam)

We propose a new methodology of assessing the effects of individual institution's risk on the others and on the system as a whole. We build upon the Conditional Value-at-Risk approach, however, we introduce the explicit Granger causal linkages and we account for possible nonlinearities in the financial time series. Conditional Value-at-Risk-Nonlinear Granger Causality, or NCoVaR as we call it, has regular asymptotic properties which makes it particulary appealing for practical applications. We test our approach empirically and assess the contribution of the euro area financial companies to the overall systemic risk. We find that only a few financial institutions pose a serious ex ante threat to the systemic risk, whereas, given that the system is already in trouble, there are more institutions which hamper its recovery. Moreover, we discover non-negligible nonlinear structures in the systemic risk profile of the euro zone.

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File URL: http://cendef.uva.nl/binaries/content/assets/subsites/amsterdam-school-of-economics/amsterdam-school-of-economics-research-institute/cendef/working-papers-2013/systemicrisk.pdf?1413884224777
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Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 13-14.

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Date of creation: 2013
Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:13-14
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
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  1. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  2. Acharya, Viral V., 2009. "A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 224-255, September.
  3. M. Jones, 1992. "Estimating densities, quantiles, quantile densities and density quantiles," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 44(4), pages 721-727, December.
  4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
  5. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
  6. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  7. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. " Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
  8. Francis, Bill B. & Mougoué, Mbodja & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2010. "Is there a symmetric nonlinear causal relationship between large and small firms?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 23-38, January.
  9. Diks, C.G.H. & Wolski, M., 2013. "Nonlinear Granger Causality: Guidelines for Multivariate Analysis," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-15, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  10. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
  11. Peter Hall & Michael C. Minnotte, 2002. "High order data sharpening for density estimation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(1), pages 141-157.
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