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Do Investors' Sentiment Dynamics affect Stock Returns? Evidence from the US Economy



This paper contributes to the understanding of the non-linear causal linkage between investors' sentiment dynamics and stock returns for the US economy. Employing the sentiment index developed by Baker and Wurgler (J. Econ. Perspect. 16: 129-151, 2007) and within a non-linear causality framework, we found that sentiment embodies signi cant predictive power with respect to stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Theologos Dergiades, 2012. "Do Investors' Sentiment Dynamics affect Stock Returns? Evidence from the US Economy," Discussion Paper Series 2012_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2012_05

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    1. Diks Cees & Panchenko Valentyn, 2005. "A Note on the Hiemstra-Jones Test for Granger Non-causality," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9, June.
    2. Kling, Gerhard & Gao, Lei, 2008. "Chinese institutional investors' sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 374-387, October.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
    5. Huisman, Ronald & van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "A new measurement method of investor overconfidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 69-71.
    6. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    7. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    8. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    9. repec:hrv:faseco:30747159 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Francis, Bill B. & Mougoué, Mbodja & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2010. "Is there a symmetric nonlinear causal relationship between large and small firms?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 23-38, January.
    11. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    12. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
    13. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. " Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
    14. Thomas Lux, 2011. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 663-679, December.
    15. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:5:p:559-573 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Xu, Xiaojie, 2014. "Price Discovery in U.S. Corn Cash and Futures Markets: The Role of Cash Market Selection," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169809, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Shamsuddin, Abul & Kim, Jae H., 2015. "Market sentiment and the Fama–French factor premia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 129-132.
    4. repec:spr:eurasi:v:7:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40821-016-0063-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Marczak, Martyna & Beissinger, Thomas, 2015. "Bidirectional relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns: New evidence from the wavelet perspective," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 06-2015, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    6. Aloui, Chaker & Hkiri, Besma & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2016. "Investors’ sentiment and US Islamic and conventional indexes nexus: A time–frequency analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 54-59.
    7. repec:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:58-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:48-59 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Investors' sentiment; Stock returns; Non-linear Granger causality.;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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