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Agricultural Productivity, Drought, and Economic Growth in Sahel

  • Boubacar, Inoussa
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    A standardized precipitation index is used in a regression analysis to quantify the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Sahel. I first estimate a Malmquist productivity index and its efficiency and technical change components. I further assess the statistical significance of the indices by estimating some confidence intervals via a bootstrap method. In the second stage of the analysis, I use a Probit model to estimate the extent to which climate variables affect agricultural productivity. It appears that agricultural performance has been disastrous in many Sahelian countries from 1970 to 2000. Using a comparable cross-country measure of drought, I provide evidence that precipitation variability is constraining not only Sahel’s agricultural performance but also its economic growth. War also plays an equally detrimental role as drought in explaining the causes of Sahel’s economic downturn.

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    Paper provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida with number 56321.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:saea10:56321
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    1. Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Yu, Bingxin, 2009. "An Updated Look at the Recovery of Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51731, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. BARRIOS, Salvador & BERTINELLI, Luisito & STROBL, Eric, 2003. "Dry times in Africa: Rainfall and Africa's growth performance," CORE Discussion Papers 2003061, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    3. Léopold Simar & Paul W. Wilson, 1998. "Sensitivity Analysis of Efficiency Scores: How to Bootstrap in Nonparametric Frontier Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 49-61, January.
    4. Derek D. Headey & D.S. Prasada Rao & Mohammad Alauddin, 2005. "Explaining Agricultural Productivity Levels and Growth: An International Perspective," CEPA Working Papers Series WP022005, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    5. Bezemer, Dirk J & Headey, Derek, 2007. "Agriculture, Development and Urban Bias," MPRA Paper 7026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Maddison, David & Manley, Marita & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2007. "The impact of climate change on African agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4306, The World Bank.
    7. Jinxia Wang & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle & Lijuan Zhang, 2009. "The impact of climate change on China's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(3), pages 323-337, 05.
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