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Agricultural Productivity, Drought, and Economic Growth in Sahel

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  • Boubacar, Inoussa

Abstract

A standardized precipitation index is used in a regression analysis to quantify the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Sahel. I first estimate a Malmquist productivity index and its efficiency and technical change components. I further assess the statistical significance of the indices by estimating some confidence intervals via a bootstrap method. In the second stage of the analysis, I use a Probit model to estimate the extent to which climate variables affect agricultural productivity. It appears that agricultural performance has been disastrous in many Sahelian countries from 1970 to 2000. Using a comparable cross-country measure of drought, I provide evidence that precipitation variability is constraining not only Sahel’s agricultural performance but also its economic growth. War also plays an equally detrimental role as drought in explaining the causes of Sahel’s economic downturn.

Suggested Citation

  • Boubacar, Inoussa, 2010. "Agricultural Productivity, Drought, and Economic Growth in Sahel," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56321, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:saea10:56321
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56321
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Derek D. Headey & D.S. Prasada Rao & Mohammad Alauddin, 2005. "Explaining Agricultural Productivity Levels and Growth: An International Perspective," CEPA Working Papers Series WP022005, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    2. Léopold Simar & Paul W. Wilson, 1998. "Sensitivity Analysis of Efficiency Scores: How to Bootstrap in Nonparametric Frontier Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 49-61, January.
    3. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2003. "Dry Times in Africa: Rainfall and Africa's Growth Performance," MPRA Paper 5705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Yu, Bingxin, 2008. "An updated look at the recovery of agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 787, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Jinxia Wang & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle & Lijuan Zhang, 2009. "The impact of climate change on China's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(3), pages 323-337, May.
    6. Maddison, David & Manley, Marita & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2007. "The impact of climate change on African agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4306, The World Bank.
    7. Bezemer, Dirk & Headey, Derek, 2008. "Agriculture, Development, and Urban Bias," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1342-1364, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Exenberger & Andreas Pondorfer, 2011. "Rain, temperature and agricultural production: The impact of climate change in Sub-Sahara Africa, 1961-2009," Working Papers 2011-26, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity; Agriculture; Sahel; International Development; Production Economics; O13; O55; Q54;

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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