IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae09/51454.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Operational Models for Improving the Targeting Efficiency of Agricultural and Development Policies: A systematic comparison of different estimation methods using out-of-sample tests

Author

Listed:
  • Houssou, Nazaire
  • Zeller, Manfred

Abstract

Accurate targeting is key for the success of any development policy. While a number of factors might explain low targeting efficiency such as governance failure, political interference or lack of political will, this paper focuses on improving indicator-based models that identify poor households and smallholder farmers more accurately. Using stepwise regressions along with out-of-sample validation tests and receiver operating characteristic curves, this paper develops proxy means tests models for rural and urban Malawi. The models developed have proved their validity in an independent sample and therefore, can be used to target a wide range of development policies to the poor. This makes the models a potentially interesting policy tool for the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Houssou, Nazaire & Zeller, Manfred, 2009. "Operational Models for Improving the Targeting Efficiency of Agricultural and Development Policies: A systematic comparison of different estimation methods using out-of-sample tests," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51454, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae09:51454
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51454
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmed, Akhter U. & Rashid, Shahidur & Sharma, Manohar & Zohir, Sajjad, 2004. "Food aid distribution in Bangladesh," FCND briefs 173, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Glewwe, Paul, 1992. "Targeting assistance to the poor : Efficient allocation of transfers when household income is not observed," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 297-321, April.
    3. World Bank, 2007. "Malawi Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment : Investing in Our Future, Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7557, The World Bank.
    4. World Bank, 2007. "Malawi : Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment, Investing in Our Future," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7555, The World Bank.
    5. Wodon, Quentin T., 1997. "Targeting the poor using ROC curves," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 2083-2092, December.
    6. Hentschel, Jesko, et al, 2000. "Combining Census and Survey Data to Trace the Spatial Dimensions of Poverty: A Case Study of Ecuador," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(1), pages 147-165, January.
    7. Ravallion, Martin & Chao, Kalvin, 1989. "Targeted policies for poverty alleviation under imperfect information: Algorithms and applications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 213-224.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Malawi; poverty targeting; predictions; proxy means tests; out-of-sample tests; ROC curve; bootstrap; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; Political Economy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C01; C13; C51; C52; I3; I32; Q14;

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae09:51454. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.