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The analysis of irreversibility, uncertainty and dynamic technical inefficiency on the investment decision in Spanish olive sector

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  • Lambarraa, Fatima
  • Stefanou, Spiro E.
  • Gil, Jose Maria

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is the evaluation of the investment decision under uncertainty and irreversibility allowing for long run inefficiency. The analysis has been applied to a 158 Spanish olive farms using FADN data set. A real option approach has been used to analyse the decision to invest under uncertainty and irreversibility, and a dynamic stochastic frontier model has been developed to estimate the long run technical efficiency and it persistence. The results show that the technical inefficiency persistence parameter is fairly low to unity, which means that small technical inefficiency is transmitted to the next time period. The olive groves investment is irreversible and characterized by uncertainty on price and discount rate. An increase of discount rate means that the farmers take the decision to postpone investment. An increase on price along with a decrease of discount rate leads to the decision to invest with no option value of waiting to invest. The results also suggest that the decision of investment depend on technical inefficiency ant it persistence, the inefficient farmers take time and wait to invest, while at small persistence parameter the decision is to invest.

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  • Lambarraa, Fatima & Stefanou, Spiro E. & Gil, Jose Maria, 2009. "The analysis of irreversibility, uncertainty and dynamic technical inefficiency on the investment decision in Spanish olive sector," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51397, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae09:51397
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.51397
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    2. Tsionas, Mike G. & Malikov, Emir & Kumbhakar, Subal C., 2020. "Endogenous dynamic efficiency in the intertemporal optimization models of firm behavior," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 313-324.
    3. S. C. West & A. W. Mugera & R. S. Kingwell, 2022. "The choice of efficiency benchmarking metric in evaluating firm productivity and viability," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 193-211, April.
    4. Willeke Veninga & Rico Ihle, 2018. "Import vulnerability in the Middle East: effects of the Arab spring on Egyptian wheat trade," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(1), pages 183-194, February.
    5. Hennessy, David A., 2018. "Managing Derived Demand For Antibiotics In Animal Agriculture," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274359, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Marta Arbelo-Pérez & Pilar Pérez-Gómez & Antonio Arbelo, . "Profit efficiency and its determinants in the agricultural sector: A Bayesian approach," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 0.
    7. Pieralli, Simone & Hüttel, Silke & Odening, Martin, 2013. "A model of firm exit under inefficiency and uncertainty," Structural Change in Agriculture/Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor (SiAg) Working Papers 155700, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    8. Marta Arbelo-Pérez & Pilar Pérez-Gómez & Antonio Arbelo, 2023. "Profit efficiency and its determinants in the agricultural sector: A Bayesian approach," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(11), pages 436-445.
    9. Pieralli, Simone & Hüttel, Silke & Odening, Martin, 2014. "Abandonment of milk production under uncertainty and inefficiency: The case of West German farms," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170236, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Iliakis, Konstantinos & Gadanakis, Yiorgos & Park, Julian, 2017. "Technology gaps and leaps in the sustainable development of English cereal and general cropping farms," 91st Annual Conference, April 24-26, 2017, Royal Dublin Society, Dublin, Ireland 258649, Agricultural Economics Society.

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