IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aesc17/258646.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effects of US biofuels policy: A structural break analysis of the WTI pass-through to the corn price

Author

Listed:
  • Gilbert, Christopher L.
  • Mugera, Harriet K.

Abstract

There is evidence that the use of corn as a biofuels feedstock has increased the crude oil pass-through to the corn price. Changes in US biofuels policy can be seen as initially increasing and subsequently retarding the use of corn in ethanol production. Because the policy both mandates but also limits this use, different regimes can prevail depending on which constraints are binding. Structural break methods show that the pass-through was important over the four years 2003-07 but has subsequently been much more limited. Competitive storage theory continues to explain much of the price movement even over those four years.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert, Christopher L. & Mugera, Harriet K., "undated". "The effects of US biofuels policy: A structural break analysis of the WTI pass-through to the corn price," 91st Annual Conference, April 24-26, 2017, Royal Dublin Society, Dublin, Ireland 258646, Agricultural Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc17:258646
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.258646
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/258646/files/Christopher_Gilbert_Link_paper_020417.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.258646?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Brian Wright, 2014. "Global Biofuels: Key to the Puzzle of Grain Market Behavior," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 73-98, Winter.
    3. Eugenio Bobenrieth & Brian Wright & Di Zeng, 2013. "Stocks-to-use ratios and prices as indicators of vulnerability to spikes in global cereal markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 43-52, November.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    5. Philip Abbott, 2014. "Biofuels, Binding Constraints, and Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 91-131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Wallace E. Tyner, 2010. "The integration of energy and agricultural markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 193-201, November.
    7. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    8. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    9. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    10. Wright, Brian, 2014. "Global Biofuels: Key to the Puzzle of Grain Market Behavior," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt11715438, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    11. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2003. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point: A Corrigendum," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 395-397, January.
    12. Prodan, Ruxandra, 2008. "Potential Pitfalls in Determining Multiple Structural Changes With an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 50-65, January.
    13. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    14. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, January.
    15. Harry Gorter & Dusan Drabik & David R. Just, 2015. "The Economics of Biofuel Policies," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-41485-4, December.
    16. Cooke, Bryce & Robles, Miguel, 2009. "Recent food prices movements: A time series analysis," IFPRI discussion papers 942, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Jean-Paul Chavas & David Hummels & Brian D. Wright, 2014. "The Economics of Food Price Volatility," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number chav12-1, March.
    18. Irwin, Scott & Good, Darrel, . "Is Speculation Driving Up the Price of RINs?," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 3.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher L. Gilbert & Harriet Kasidi Mugera, 2020. "Competitive Storage, Biofuels and the Corn Price," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 384-411, June.
    2. Jean‐Paul Chavas & Jian Li, 2020. "A quantile autoregression analysis of price volatility in agricultural markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(2), pages 273-289, March.
    3. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Li, Jian, "undated". "The Effects of Private Stocks versus Public Stocks on Food Price Volatility," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259185, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Helmut Herwartz & Alberto Saucedo, 2020. "Food–oil volatility spillovers and the impact of distinct biofuel policies on price uncertainties on feedstock markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(3), pages 387-402, May.
    5. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2019. "The Relationship Between Fuel and Food Prices: Methods, Outcomes, and Lessons for Commodity Price Risk Management," CAMA Working Papers 2019-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Gilbert, Christopher L., "undated". "A Model of Grains Prices with Application to the Impact of Biofuels," 92nd Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2018, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 273492, Agricultural Economics Society.
    7. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    8. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    9. Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit Of Structural Explanations Of Commodity Price Volatility: Review And Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 639-664, April.
    10. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "Ethanol and field crops: Is there a price connection?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 53-61.
    11. De Lipsis, Vincenzo & Agnolucci, Paolo, 2024. "Climate change and the US wheat commodity market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    12. Filip, Ondrej & Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2019. "Food versus fuel: An updated and expanded evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-166.
    13. Gutierrez, L. & Piras, F., 2013. "A Global Wheat Market Model (GLOWMM) for the Analysis of Wheat Export Prices," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149760, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    14. Taheripour, Farzad & Baumes, Harry S. & Tyner, Wallace E., 2020. "Economic impacts of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard: An ex-post evaluation," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304252, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. repec:ags:aaea22:335622 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Christiane Baumeister & Reinhard Ellwanger & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6282, CESifo.
    17. John Baffes & Tassos Haniotis, 2016. "What Explains Agricultural Price Movements?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 706-721, September.
    18. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2025. "The role of storage in commodity markets: Indirect inference based on grain data," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(2), pages 705-747, May.
    19. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    20. Mugera, Harriet & Gilbert, Christopher, 2015. "Structural Change in the Relationship Between Energy and Food Prices," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212505, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    21. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aesc17:258646. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aesukea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.