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A Model of Grains Prices with Application to the Impact of Biofuels


  • Gilbert, Christopher L.


The paper reports preliminary results from an econometric model of world grains markets. The model is used to address the source of shocks (demand or supply?), the scale of their price impact (greater for corn than wheat) and the price impact of the growth of the use of corn as a biofuel feedstock (substantial for corn, less so for wheat). We also ask whether it makes sense to think of grains as a single composite commodity or whether idiosyncratic crop-specific factors remain important.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert, Christopher L., 2018. "A Model of Grains Prices with Application to the Impact of Biofuels," 92nd Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2018, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 273492, Agricultural Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc18:273492
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.273492

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Brian Wright, 2014. "Global Biofuels: Key to the Puzzle of Grain Market Behavior," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 73-98, Winter.
    2. Alanoud Al-Maadid & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2017. "Spillovers between food and energy prices and structural breaks," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 150, pages 1-18.
    3. Westcott, Paul C. & Hoffman, Linwood A., 1999. "Price Determination for Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government Programs," Technical Bulletins 33581, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Jean-Paul Chavas & David Hummels & Brian D. Wright, 2014. "The Economics of Food Price Volatility," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number chav12-1, July.
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    7. Philip Abbott, 2014. "Biofuels, Binding Constraints, and Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 91-131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Wright, Brian, 2014. "Global Biofuels: Key to the Puzzle of Grain Market Behavior," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt11715438, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    9. Irwin, Scott & Good, Darrel, 2016. "New Corn and Soybean Pricing Models and World Stocks-to-Use Ratios," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 6, May.
    10. Harry Gorter & Dusan Drabik & David R. Just, 2015. "The Economics of Biofuel Policies," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-41485-4.
    11. Avalos, Fernando, 2014. "Do oil prices drive food prices? The tale of a structural break," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 253-271.
    12. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2265-2295, October.
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