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Price Determination for Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government Programs

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  • Westcott, Paul C.
  • Hoffman, Linwood A.

Abstract

Annual models for U.S. farm prices for corn and wheat are developed based on market factors as well as government agricultural commodity programs. The pricing relationships utilize a stocks-to-use modeling framework to capture the effects of market supply and demand factors on price determination. This formulation is augmented by factors that represent the changing role of agricultural policies, particularly government price support and stockholding programs. For wheat, international market effects as well as wheat feed use and related crosscommodity pricing considerations also are included. Model properties and model performance measures are presented. Additionally, recent price-forecasting applications of the models are discussed. The relatively simple structure of the estimated price models and their small data requirements lend themselves to use in price-forecasting applications in conjunction with market analysis of supply and demand conditions. In particular, the models have been implemented into USDAís short-term market analysis and long-term baseline projections. In these applications, the models provide an analytical framework to forecast prices and a vehicle for making consistency checks among the Departmentís supply, demand, and price forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Westcott, Paul C. & Hoffman, Linwood A., 1999. "Price Determination for Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government Programs," Technical Bulletins 33581, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerstb:33581
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33581
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    Cited by:

    1. Westcott, Paul C. & Price, J. Michael, 2001. "Analysis Of The U.S. Commodity Loan Program With Marketing Loan Provisions," Agricultural Economics Reports 34035, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la & Sanford, Scott & Skinner, Robert A. & Westcott, Paul C. & Lin, William W., 2000. "Supply Response Under The 1996 Farm Act And Implications For The U.S. Field Crops Sector," Technical Bulletins 33568, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Schaffer, Harwood D., 2004. "On Predicting The Price Of Corn, 1963-2002," 2004 Annual Meeting, February 14-18, 2004, Tulsa, Oklahoma 34662, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management In Agricultural Markets: A Survey," 2000 Producer marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL 19580, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Gutierrez, L. & Piras, F., 2013. "A Global Wheat Market Model (GLOWMM) for the Analysis of Wheat Export Prices," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149760, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    6. Baek, Jungho & Mattson, Jeremy W. & Koo, Won W., 2009. "Analyzing Effects of the U.S. Duties on Canadian Hard Red Spring Wheat. Technical Annex," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 10(2).
    7. Hatzenbuehler, Patrick L. & Abbott, Philip C. & Foster, Kenneth A., 2016. "Agricultural Commodity Prices and Exchange Rates under Structural Change," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(2), May.
    8. Elanor Starmer, Aimee Witteman and Timothy A. Wise, "undated". "06-03 "Feeding the Factory Farm: Implicit Subsidies to the Broiler Chicken Industry"," GDAE Working Papers 06-03, GDAE, Tufts University.
    9. Botto, Augusto C. & Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2006. "Accuracy Trends and Sources of Forecast Errors in WASDE Balance Sheet Categories for Corn and Soybeans," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21332, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "A roller coaster ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of the international wheat price," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 459-475, July.
    11. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2008. "Quantile Regression Methods of Estimating Confidence Intervals for WASDE Price Forecasts," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6409, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Júnia Cristina Peres R.da Conceição, 2009. "A Necessidade de uma Nova Política de Comercialização Agrícola," Discussion Papers 1440, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    13. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Kuo, Hsiao-I & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2010. "Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2517-2525, August.
    14. Gutierrez, Luciano & Piras, Francesco & Olmeo, Maria Grazia, 2015. "Forecasting Wheat Commodity Prices using a Global Vector Autoregressive model," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207264, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    15. MacDonald, Stephen, 2006. "Cotton Price Forecasting and Structural Change," MPRA Paper 70910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Baek, Jungho & Mattson, Jeremy W. & Koo, Won W., 2009. "Analyzing Effects of the U.S. Duties on Canadian Hard Red Spring Wheat," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 10(2).
    17. Verteramo Chiu, Leslie J. & Tomek, William G., 2016. "Anticipatory Signals of Changes in Corn Demand," Working Papers 250032, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    18. Nazif Durmaz, 2014. "Inventories of Asian Textile Producers, US Cotton Exports, and the Exchange Rate," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(4), pages 397-413, September.
    19. Verteramo Chiu, Leslie & Tomek, William, 2016. "Anticipatory Signals of Changes in U.S. Corn Demand," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235869, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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