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Evaluation of Economic, Land Use, and Land Use Emission Impacts of Substituting Non-GMO Crops for GMO in the US

Listed author(s):
  • Taheripour, Farzad
  • Mahaffey, Harry
  • Tyner, Wallace E.

The main objective of this study was to evaluate what would be the economic and environmental consequences of losing the GMO traits in the U.S. for the major crops of corn, soybeans, and cotton. The first step was to obtain from the literature a range of estimates of the yield loses if we move away from GMO traits in the U.S. The second step was to introduce the yield losses obtained in the first step into a well known CGE model, GTAP-BIO, to quantify the land use and economic impacts of banning GMO traits in the U.S. Our analyses confirms that if we do not have access to the GMO technology, a significant amount of land would need to be converted from other crops, cropland pasture, pasture, and forest to meet the global food demand. The land expansion likely is similar to the entire U.S. ethanol program. Furthermore, induced land use emissions were significantly larger that the corresponding figure for corn ethanol. The price changes for corn were as high as 28% and for soybeans as high as 22%. In general, the price increases for the reference and average cases were higher than those observed previously for biofuel shocks. Food price changes in the U.S. amount to $14 - $24 billion per year. As expected, welfare falls both in the U.S. and globally.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/204907
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Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association & Western Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California with number 204907.

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Date of creation: 2015
Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea15:204907
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  1. Steven Sexton & David Zilberman, 2011. "Land for Food and Fuel Production: The Role of Agricultural Biotechnology," NBER Chapters,in: The Intended and Unintended Effects of U.S. Agricultural and Biotechnology Policies, pages 269-288 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Farzad Taheripour & Thomas W. Hertel & Wallace E. Tyner, 2011. "Implications of biofuels mandates for the global livestock industry: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 325-342, 05.
  3. Matin Qaim, 2009. "The Economics of Genetically Modified Crops," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 665-694, September.
  4. Elizabeth Nolan & Paulo Santos, 2012. "The Contribution of Genetic Modification to Changes in Corn Yield in the United States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1171-1188.
  5. Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge & Livingston, Michael J. & Mitchell, Lorraine & Wechsler, Seth, 2014. "Genetically Engineered Crops in the United States," Economic Research Report 164263, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  6. Barrows, Geoffrey & Sexton, Steven & Zilberman, David, 2014. "The impact of agricultural biotechnology on supply and land-use," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 676-703, December.
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