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Realized and potential global production effects from genetic engineering

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  • Scheitrum, Daniel
  • Schaefer, K. Aleks
  • Nes, Kjersti

Abstract

Realized production impacts of genetic engineering (GE) are bounded by (i) restrictions on cultivation in many countries and (ii) economic constraints to adoption in regions where the technology is approved. In this paper, we use econometric modeling to gauge the long-run production impacts to date attributable to currently commercialized GE crops and traits. We then assess the achievable production impacts from relaxing regulatory constraints and increasing farm-level adoption. We estimate that global production of commercialized GE crops has generated approximately $57 billion in farm-gate revenues in 2016. The technology has increased the global supply of soybeans and maize by 13% and 11%, respectively, in addition to smaller impacts for several other important staple crops. However, the current value of genetic engineering is less than half that which could be achieved by science-based regulation of the technology. Holding constant current farm-level GE adoption rates, the increased production achievable through widespread approval could generate an additional $65 billion, the majority of which would accrue to the developing world.

Suggested Citation

  • Scheitrum, Daniel & Schaefer, K. Aleks & Nes, Kjersti, 2020. "Realized and potential global production effects from genetic engineering," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:93:y:2020:i:c:s0306919220300841
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101882
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    Cited by:

    1. Merlo, Marie & Hennessy, Thia & Buckley, Cathal & O'Mahony, James, 2023. "A comparison of animal and plant-based proteins from an economic, environmental, and nutritional perspective in the Republic of Ireland," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334515, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    2. Fan, Linlin & Stevens, Andrew W. & Thomas, Betty, 2022. "Consumer purchasing response to mandatory genetically engineered labeling," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Casper Worm Hansen & Asger Mose Wingender, 2023. "National and Global Impacts of Genetically Modified Crops," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 224-240, June.
    4. Kjersti Nes & K. Aleks Schaefer & Daniel P. Scheitrum, 2022. "Global Food Trade and the Costs of Non‐Adoption of Genetic Engineering," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 70-91, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Genetic engineering; Agricultural development; Technology adoption; Global food security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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