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A Model of West African Millet Prices in Rural Markets

  • Brown, Molly
  • Higgins, Nathaniel
  • Hintermann, Beat

In this article we specify a model of millet prices in the three West African countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Using data obtained from USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) we present a unique regional cereal price forecasting model that takes advantage of the panel nature of our data, and accounts for the flow of millet across markets. Another novel aspect of our analysis is our use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect and control for variation in conditions for productivity. The average absolute out-of-sample prediction error for 4- month-ahead millet prices is about 20 %.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/150714
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Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 150714.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150714
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  1. Bryceson, Deborah Fahy, 2002. "The Scramble in Africa: Reorienting Rural Livelihoods," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 725-739, May.
  2. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  3. Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May.
  4. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  5. Dembele, Niama Nango & Staatz, John M., 1999. "The Response Of Cereals Traders To Agricultural Market Reform In Mali," Staff Papers 11476, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  6. Abdulai, Awudu & CroleRees, Anna, 2001. "Determinants of income diversification amongst rural households in Southern Mali," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 437-452, August.
  7. Dorosh, Paul A. & Subran, Ludovic, 2009. "Food Aid, External Trade and Domestic Markets: Implications for Food Security in Darfur," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51453, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
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