A Model of West African Millet Prices in Rural Markets
In this article we specify a model of millet prices in the three West African countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Using data obtained from USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) we present a unique regional cereal price forecasting model that takes advantage of the panel nature of our data, and accounts for the flow of millet across markets. Another novel aspect of our analysis is our use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect and control for variation in conditions for productivity. The average absolute out-of-sample prediction error for 4- month-ahead millet prices is about 20 %.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202|
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- L. G. Godfrey & M. R. Wickens, 1981. "Testing Linear and Log-Linear Regressions for Functional Form," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 487-496.
- Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Laura Deotti & Maria Sassi, 2012.
"Food Price Volatility over the Last Decade in Niger and Malawi: Extent, Sources and Impact on Child Malnutrition,"
UNDP Africa Policy Notes
2012-002, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.
- Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Laura Deotti & Maria Sassi, 2012. "Food Price Volatility over the Last Decade in Niger and Malawi: Extent, Sources and Impact on Child Malnutrition," Working Papers - Economics wp2012_04.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May.
- Bryceson, Deborah Fahy, 2002. "The Scramble in Africa: Reorienting Rural Livelihoods," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 725-739, May.
- Dorosh, Paul A. & Subran, Ludovic, 2009. "Food Aid, External Trade and Domestic Markets: Implications for Food Security in Darfur," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51453, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Dembele, Niama Nango & Staatz, John M., 1999. "The Response Of Cereals Traders To Agricultural Market Reform In Mali," Staff Papers 11476, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
- Yu, Bingxin & You, Liangzhi & Fan, Shenggen, 2009. "A Typology of Food Security in Developing Countries under High Food Prices," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51043, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Abdulai, Awudu & CroleRees, Anna, 2001. "Determinants of income diversification amongst rural households in Southern Mali," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 437-452, August.
- Johan Swinnen, 2011. "The Right Price of Food," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 29(6), pages 667-688, November.
- Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150714. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.